San Francisco Frontiers - EU scrambles to seal climate deal ahead of COP30

"To come empty-handed to Belem," where the COP30 talks are taking place from November 10 to 21, "would really undermine the EU's credibility," warned an EU diplomat.

Talks are expected to stretch into the night among the European Union's 27 member states, which have been haggling for months over two separate targets for slashing greenhouse-gas emissions: one for 2035 and the other for 2040.

Behind only China, the United States and India in terms of emissions, the EU has been the most committed of the major polluters to climate action and has already cut emissions by 37 percent compared to 1990.

But after blazing a trail, the EU's political landscape has shifted to the right, and climate concerns have largely taken a back seat to defence and competitiveness.

Ministers' most urgent challenge on Tuesday is to reach a unanimous deal on an emissions target for 2035, known as a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which Paris Agreement signatories are supposed to bring to the Brazil summit.

Beyond that, they hope to lock in the support of a weighted majority of countries for the next big climate target set out by the European Commission on the path to carbon neutrality by 2050.

The EU executive said in July it wanted to cut emissions by 90 percent by 2040, compared to 1990 levels -- a major step towards net-zero.

But the bloc's capitals have yet to endorse that next step, which would require sweeping changes to industry and daily life at a time of growing concern over adverse impacts on Europe's economy.

Spain and the Nordic countries support the 2040 proposal, as does Germany -- with some caveats. But Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Italy remain opposed, citing risks to their industrial sectors.

Heavyweight France, meanwhile, has kept observers guessing, drawing criticism from environmental groups.

On Paris's list of demands are guarantees its nuclear sector would not lose out under green transition plans, funding for clean industries, and wiggle room on emissions should Europe's forests absorb less carbon than expected in years to come.

- 'Balancing act' -

To win over the staunchest sceptics, Tuesday's talks will cover a range of "flexibilities" for member states, including letting countries count carbon credits purchased to finance projects outside Europe.

A commission pledge for credits to account for up to three percent of a nation's 2040 emission cuts failed to win over hardliners, with countries including France pushing for a higher threshold of five percent.

Some countries also want a review clause in the 2040 climate law, allowing the target to be reassessed every two years.

Environmental groups have been pushing back.

"Member States should not further undermine the proposals on the table through unnecessary loopholes," warned Sven Harmeling at Climate Action Network Europe.

But a diplomat involved in the process defended the compromise shaping up in Brussels, while conceding it was "not necessarily pretty".

"In the muddy, messy, nasty real world out there, we are trying to achieve something good," said the diplomat, granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive deliberations.

"It's a careful balancing act," summed up a second diplomat, who said countries "seem to be converging" on an agreement.

With the clock ticking down to COP30, EU countries in September agreed to a non-binding "statement of intent" for the bloc to cut emissions by between 66.25 percent and 72.5 percent by 2035.

To avoid deadlock, ministers are expected Tuesday to formalise that range as the bloc's legally binding NDC under the Paris Agreement.

"It's simply unthinkable that the EU would arrive in Belem without an NDC," said a French government source. "That would be a diplomatic disaster."

The EU insists it remains committed to its role as global climate leader, having mobilised 31.7 billion euros ($36.6 billion) in public climate finance in 2024, making it the world's largest donor.

A.Evans--SFF