San Francisco Frontiers - Australia limits migration

Australia has not closed its borders, abandoned skilled migration or ceased to regard itself as a country shaped by newcomers. Its universities still recruit abroad, employers continue to depend on overseas workers, and the permanent migration programme remains substantial. What has changed is the burden of proof. After a historic post-pandemic rise in arrivals collided with an acute housing shortage, congested infrastructure, weak productivity growth and a prolonged cost-of-living crisis, migration can no longer be defended merely by pointing to aggregate economic growth.

The political expectation has shifted. Australians increasingly want fewer arrivals, more selective admission and a visible relationship between population growth and the country’s ability to provide homes, roads, schools, hospitals and secure employment. The proposition that Australia no longer wants more immigrants therefore captures a genuine change in public mood, even if it overstates the formal position of the government. Australia is not shutting the door. It is changing the conditions under which that door remains open.

The post-pandemic surge changed the national argument
Australia’s population stood at approximately 27.8 million at the end of December 2025. It had grown by about 412,500 people in a single year, equivalent to an annual increase of 1.5 per cent. Net overseas migration accounted for roughly 301,000 of that growth, while the natural increase from births exceeding deaths contributed only about 111,500. The latest figure is considerably below the extraordinary post-pandemic peak. Net overseas migration reached approximately 538,000 in the 2022–23 financial year, before falling to 429,000 and then to 306,000 in the following two financial years. The direction is therefore downward. Yet the political impact of the surge has not disappeared simply because the rate is falling. Population growth operates cumulatively. The people who arrived during the peak years still require accommodation, transport, medical care, education and other services.

It is also important to distinguish between net overseas migration and the permanent migration programme. The annual permanent programme covers people receiving permanent visas under planned skilled, family and special categories. Net overseas migration is much broader. It includes international students, temporary workers, working holidaymakers, some returning Australians and other people who remain in the country long enough to be counted as residents. It also subtracts those who leave.

This distinction explains why a government can hold the permanent programme steady while the population continues to grow much more rapidly. It also helps explain public frustration. The figure announced as the permanent migration ceiling is not the number most Australians experience through higher demand for housing, transport and public services.

Housing has become the decisive political fault line
The migration debate is now inseparable from the housing crisis. Australia has spent years adding people more quickly than it has added suitable homes in the places where employment and educational opportunities are concentrated. The imbalance became particularly visible after the borders reopened and temporary migration recovered faster than housing construction. The National Housing Accord established a target of 1.2 million new homes over the five years ending in June 2029. Even the improved outlook prepared in early 2026 projected approximately 980,000 new homes during that period. That would leave the country around 220,000 homes below the target, with the full 1.2 million expected only during the second half of 2030. Rising construction costs and renewed uncertainty over materials, finance and global energy prices could make the outcome weaker still.

For renters, the crisis is not theoretical. Vacancy rates remain extremely low, competition at inspections is intense and advertised rents in the major capitals have reached record levels. Young workers who once expected to rent independently are remaining in shared accommodation or with their parents. Families are moving farther from employment centres, accepting longer commutes and paying more for transport. First-time buyers face deposit requirements that rise faster than their savings. Migration is not the sole cause of these conditions. Australia entered the post-pandemic period with years of underbuilding, restrictive planning rules, slow approvals, expensive infrastructure connections, high construction costs, labour shortages and limited development in well-connected locations. Smaller household sizes, population ageing, tax settings and the diversion of homes into short-term accommodation have also increased pressure.

Nevertheless, migration adds demand immediately, while new housing takes years to plan and complete. A newly arrived household can enter the rental market within days. A new apartment building may require several years of financing, approval, construction and connection to local infrastructure. When these two timelines diverge, even economically valuable migration can worsen living conditions in the short term.

The failure was therefore not simply that Australia admitted too many people. It was that governments permitted population growth without expanding housing and infrastructure at a comparable speed. Migration became the most visible part of a much broader failure of public planning.

Australians support diversity but distrust the pace
Public opinion reveals a more complicated picture than blanket hostility towards immigrants. In 2026, 55 per cent of Australians said the number of migrants entering the country each year was too high. That was the highest result recorded in the long-running survey that asked the question. Only 29 per cent considered the level about right. At the same time, 73 per cent continued to regard Australia’s culturally diverse population as a positive development. These findings are not contradictory. They indicate that many Australians distinguish between the contribution made by migrants and the pace at which the population is growing.

The emerging public position is not necessarily that migrants are unwanted. It is that migration should not proceed faster than the country can absorb it. Voters who welcome multiculturalism may still be unable to find an affordable home. A business owner who values overseas workers may still believe that transport, hospitals and schools are overcrowded. An immigrant family that settled successfully years ago may also conclude that present intake levels are unsustainable. This distinction matters because an argument framed exclusively as acceptance against xenophobia misses the central grievance. Much of the current backlash is directed not at individual migrants but at a system perceived to distribute the benefits and costs unfairly. Employers, universities and the federal budget may gain from a larger population, while renters, first-time buyers and users of overstretched services experience the immediate pressure.

That imbalance has created political space for parties demanding deeper cuts. It has also pushed the mainstream opposition towards proposals that would connect migration more directly to the number of homes completed. The federal government, meanwhile, is seeking to reduce net migration gradually while preserving the skilled intake needed by employers and public services.

Canberra is tightening the terms rather than closing the border
The permanent migration programme for 2026–27 remains set at 185,000 places. More than 132,000 are allocated to the skilled stream, representing over 70 per cent of the programme. The headline number is unchanged from the previous two years, which means it would be inaccurate to describe the permanent programme itself as having been dramatically cut. The more significant changes are occurring within the programme. Greater priority is being given to migrants who are already living and working in Australia. This allows temporary residents with established employment, English-language ability and local experience to move towards permanent status without producing the same immediate population increase as bringing an entirely new applicant from overseas.

Employer-sponsored migration has also been expanded, reflecting a preference for applicants who already have a defined job and an employer willing to support them. At the same time, the allocation for certain regional migration routes has been reduced sharply. The overall message is clear: Australia wants migration to be more closely connected to verified employment, productivity and long-term settlement outcomes. International education is being managed in a similar fashion. The national planning level for new international student commencements was set at 295,000 for 2026. Although this was an increase from the 2025 level, it remained below the immediate post-pandemic peak. The government has since confirmed that there will be no further increase in 2027.

Universities seeking additional capacity have been encouraged to demonstrate that they are contributing to student accommodation. Visa scrutiny has also been tightened in an attempt to distinguish genuine students from applicants using low-quality courses primarily as an immigration route. Budget projections show net overseas migration falling from an estimated 295,000 in 2025–26 to 245,000 in 2026–27, before declining to 225,000 from 2027–28 onwards. These figures remain substantial, but they represent a deliberate retreat from the exceptional post-pandemic period.

Australia is therefore moving towards managed contraction rather than closure. The objective is not zero migration. It is a smaller temporary inflow, a more selective permanent intake and a stronger preference for applicants capable of filling genuine shortages.

The economy still needs overseas workers
The difficulty is that Australia’s demographic and economic structure makes a complete retreat from migration unrealistic. The country’s fertility rate has fallen to approximately 1.48 births per woman, well below the level required for the population to replace itself without immigration. The median age is expected to reach 40 within the next decade and continue rising thereafter.

An ageing population increases demand for healthcare, aged care and public expenditure while reducing the relative size of the working-age population. Without migration, fewer workers would eventually be available to support a growing number of retirees. Tax revenue would come under pressure, and labour-intensive services would become more difficult and expensive to provide. Persistent shortages remain in health, education, engineering, construction, skilled trades and care services. Australia cannot resolve every shortage through immigration, nor should migration replace domestic training. Yet training a nurse, doctor, engineer or qualified tradesperson takes years. Overseas recruitment provides a faster response when shortages threaten hospitals, building projects, schools and regional services.

International students also form part of a major export industry worth more than 50 billion Australian dollars and supporting over 250,000 jobs. Universities rely heavily on international fees to finance teaching, research and employment. A sudden, indiscriminate reduction would weaken institutions, reduce economic activity and damage Australia’s competitive position in Asia. Migration can also support innovation, entrepreneurship and business investment. Skilled migrants tend to arrive during their working years, after another country has carried much of the cost of their childhood and education. Properly selected and successfully integrated, they can make a strong fiscal and economic contribution.

Yet these benefits are not automatic. A larger population can increase total gross domestic product while leaving output per person stagnant. If investment in housing, transport, machinery and public services fails to keep pace, each worker has less infrastructure and capital available. Congestion rises, housing becomes more expensive and productivity suffers.

The real economic question is therefore not whether migration increases the size of the economy. It plainly does. The question is whether it improves living standards per person. That depends on who arrives, where they settle, what work they perform and whether public and private investment expands alongside the population.

Regional Australia exposes the policy contradiction
The reduction in some regional migration allocations illustrates the tension at the heart of the new approach. Many regional communities urgently need doctors, nurses, aged-care workers, engineers, mechanics and tradespeople. Employers outside the major capitals often struggle to recruit locally and rely on migration programmes that encourage workers to settle beyond Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.

Cutting regional pathways may reduce the number of migrants entering through routes that have not always delivered suitable employment. It may also reflect a preference for direct employer sponsorship, where a specific vacancy already exists. However, smaller regional businesses frequently lack the resources and administrative expertise needed to sponsor workers themselves. A policy designed to improve the quality of migration could therefore intensify shortages in precisely those communities with the weakest labour supply. The challenge is to prevent regional visas from becoming indirect routes into the major cities while ensuring that towns with genuine vacancies can still attract and retain skilled workers.

This cannot be achieved through visa conditions alone. Migrants will remain in regional areas only when employment is stable, housing is available, schools are suitable and families can access healthcare and community services. Retention depends on the quality of life offered after arrival, not merely on the terms printed on a visa.

The costs are immediate while the benefits are dispersed
The political backlash is also explained by the uneven timing of migration’s effects. The economic benefits are often national, statistical and long term. The costs are frequently local, visible and immediate. A federal budget may benefit from additional taxpayers. A university may gain fee income. An employer may fill a vacancy. At the same time, a renter attends an inspection with dozens of competing applicants, a commuter boards an overcrowded train and a hospital patient waits longer for treatment. All of these outcomes can exist simultaneously.

Responsibility is divided across levels of government. The Commonwealth controls most visa policy, while state and local authorities oversee much of the housing, transport and service infrastructure. The federal government can increase the population without directly delivering the homes required in a particular suburb. States can promise housing targets while local planning systems delay construction. Councils may approve development without having the funding to provide roads, water and community facilities. This fragmentation has weakened public confidence. Voters are repeatedly told that migration is economically necessary, yet they see little evidence that governments have prepared for the consequences. The result is a debate driven increasingly by distrust rather than by demographic or economic evidence.

Linking migration mechanically to housing completions offers political clarity, but it would not be simple to administer. Net overseas migration is influenced by departures as well as arrivals, and governments cannot know in advance exactly how long every temporary resident will remain. Nor does one completed home necessarily accommodate only one person. Household sizes vary, and new construction is not always located where demand is strongest.

The principle behind such proposals is nevertheless difficult to dismiss. Population policy must be tied to measurable capacity. A credible system should publish not only migration numbers but also the housing, infrastructure, employment and service assumptions on which those numbers are based.

Australia is negotiating a new migration settlement
Australia is unlikely to abandon immigration. Its ageing population, low birth rate, export industries and workforce shortages make that neither practical nor economically desirable. But the era in which high migration could be presented as an uncomplicated measure of national success is ending.

The emerging settlement will be more selective and more demanding. Net migration will be expected to remain well below the post-pandemic peak. Permanent places will be directed increasingly towards skilled workers with verified employment prospects. Temporary programmes will face closer scrutiny. Universities will be asked to take greater responsibility for accommodation, while employers will be expected to demonstrate genuine workforce needs. That approach will succeed only if migration reform is accompanied by domestic reform. Australia must build homes faster, release serviced land, simplify planning, expand vocational training, improve recognition of overseas qualifications and invest in transport, hospitals and schools. Reducing migration without addressing these failures would ease some pressure but would not solve the underlying housing or productivity crisis.

The statement that Australia no longer wants more immigrants is therefore both true and misleading. Australia still wants migrants who can contribute, settle successfully and fill genuine needs. What it no longer wants is migration without preparation, population growth without housing and economic expansion that leaves living standards behind. The country is not closing its doors. It is demanding that those doors open at a pace the nation can sustain.