San Francisco Frontiers - Azerbaijan defies Russia

Since the death of two Azerbaijanis in Russia, the conflict between the two countries has escalated. Since the war in Ukraine, Baku's autocrat Ilham Aliyev has been acting much more confidently towards Moscow. Relations between Azerbaijan and Russia, which for years were characterised by pragmatic cooperation, have deteriorated dramatically in recent months. The conflict unfolding in the Caucasus has far-reaching geopolitical implications and could permanently alter the balance of power in the region.

Background to the relations
Relations between Azerbaijan and Russia have long been characterised by mutual benefit. Russia was considered the protective power of Armenia, Azerbaijan's neighbour and rival, but at the same time Moscow maintained economic and political ties with Baku. Azerbaijan, rich in oil and gas reserves, played a key role in regional energy policy. However, this balance was upset when Azerbaijan strengthened its independence from Russia after its victory in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2023 and established closer relations with Turkey and the West.

Trigger for the current tensions
The current conflict began with the death of two Azerbaijani brothers in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg in June 2025. The men were arrested during a raid by the Russian domestic intelligence service and died shortly afterwards in unclear circumstances. While Russian authorities claimed that the deaths were natural, an Azerbaijani autopsy revealed serious injuries, sparking allegations of torture and ethnically motivated violence. This incident sparked a wave of outrage in Azerbaijan and set off a chain of events that exacerbated tensions.

Escalating events
In response to the incident, Azerbaijan cancelled all planned Russian cultural events and raided the offices of a Russian foreign broadcaster in Baku, arresting several journalists. Another high point was the crash of an Azerbaijani passenger plane in December 2024 on its way to Grozny in Chechnya.
 The accident claimed the lives of 38 people. While Russia attributed the crash to a bird strike, Azerbaijan suspects that a Russian missile was responsible. President Aliyev then threatened legal action at the international level.

Reactions from both sides
Azerbaijan has strengthened its position by moving closer to the West and supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia. At the same time, the country has expanded its energy exports to Europe in order to secure its economic independence. Russia, on the other hand, sees itself weakened by the war in Ukraine and is responding with a mixture of threats and appeasement. Official spokespeople warned Azerbaijan against a deterioration in relations, while nationalist voices in Russia called for tougher measures against Azerbaijani migrants.

Consequences for the Caucasus
The South Caucasus is a strategically important region that serves as a transit corridor for energy exports and connects Europe with Asia. An escalating conflict could jeopardise Europe's energy supply and undermine the stability of the region. Russia's waning influence, coupled with the growing role of Turkey and the West, is changing the geopolitical landscape. The conflict could also strain relations between Russia and Turkey, which have different interests in the region.

Outlook for the political future
The future remains uncertain. Some warn of further escalation that could lead to military confrontation. Others are counting on diplomatic solutions, possibly through mediation by international actors such as the European Union. What is clear, however, is that relations between Azerbaijan and Russia have reached a low point and that the Caucasus faces an uncertain future.