San Francisco Frontiers - Rubio hosts G20 ministers as Iran, Ukraine wars divide members

The foreign ministers' meeting in Atlanta, Georgia, taking place just days before crucial US midterm elections, will set the stage for a December G20 leaders' summit in Miami at President Donald Trump's Doral resort.

Few breakthroughs are expected this week from the Group of 20 economies -- which include China, India, Russia, Japan, Germany and France -- as officials face divisions over Moscow's war on Ukraine and fallout from conflict with Iran.

Russia has been shunned by most of the West after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and Lavrov himself remains under international sanctions.

Rubio's encounter with Lavrov -- whose presence adds an additional layer of tension -- will be closely watched as Washington pursues diplomacy on Ukraine while seeking Moscow's cooperation on reining in fuel prices, a key campaign issue in the midterms.

"The G20 is no longer really a forum where foreign ministers can reach agreement on a statement," a diplomatic source said.

The source added that the US G20 presidency intends for Miami's summit to serve "more as a demonstration of American power -- and of US commitments to growth, deregulation, trade and business -- rather than as a summit with grand ambitions on substantive issues."

Instead of a final declaration, the source expects a chair summary drafted by the United States to be published from this week's meeting.

The Trump administration, which is set to hand the rotating G20 leadership to Britain, sees the platform as having strayed from its core mission.

Washington has pledged to return the grouping to its goal of driving economic growth, arguing that security and economic prosperity are "inextricably linked."

"Conversations in Atlanta will provide an opportunity to discuss energy and supply chain challenges as well as identify ways to collectively address the impact of geopolitical tensions on economic security," a US State Department official said.

They stressed the importance of energy access -- necessary for tech like artificial intelligence -- and flagged a "shared resolve to confront urgent crises and keep critical sea lanes open to commerce without threats or tolls."

- 'Test case' -

Global energy prices have rocketed since US-Israel strikes on Iran from late February triggered Tehran's blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.

"This is the last test case the G20 has, at least under the US G20 presidency, until Miami," Alisha Chhangani of the Atlantic Council told AFP. Its outcomes will affect how the December summit shapes up.

She expects Washington will seek to argue that security shocks are also economic shocks.

It will likely push for agreement on what "freedom of navigation" means within and beyond Hormuz, a crucial waterway for oil and gas transit, she said.

But this could face objections from China, which dissented against wording on free navigation in Hormuz and worldwide at an earlier gathering of finance ministers.

China's top diplomat Wang Yi will not be in Atlanta, and is instead sending his deputy, the US State Department said.

Meanwhile, the possibility of further escalation in the Middle East is mounting, with Israel threatening to strike Iran and Trump signalling he could attack after Tuesday's midterm elections.

- Lavrov attendance -

In Atlanta, Rubio is also due to cross paths with Lavrov, who has already reached Atlanta according to Russian state media.

It comes ahead of fresh negotiations between Moscow, Kyiv and Washington in November.

The appearance of Lavrov, who plans to argue against international sanctions at the gathering, will likely frustrate European ministers, Chhangani said.

It is not surprising, however, as Washington has welcomed Russian officials to this year's G20 events -- while excluding member South Africa -- and Trump has invited his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to Miami in December.

Trump has eased some sanctions on Moscow recently while touting a deal for Russia to sell diesel as prices soared, squeezing Americans.

The diplomatic source stressed that Russia's G20 presence "in no way legitimizes its actions."

All eyes will also be on US engagement with Brazil, whose foreign minister will be in attendance, after Washington granted entry to Flavio Bolsonaro following his defeat in Sunday's presidential election.

B.Ramirez--SFF