San Francisco Frontiers - Israel opposition vows to replace Netanyahu but falls short of majority

Exit polls showed Eisenkot, a former military chief and political novice, and his opposition bloc even with Netanyahu's hard-right camp in Tuesday's election, with the highest turnout in decades.

The strongest gains came from Arab Israeli parties whose voters turned out in soaring numbers against Netanyahu, who has relentlessly warned that the minority would dilute the Jewish nationalist direction in which he has taken Israel.

Speaking to upbeat supporters at a Tel Aviv arena, Eisenkot also issued a veiled warning to Netanyahu over his threats to launch a new war on Iran, which could scramble efforts to form a coalition.

"Netanyahu, don't you dare use Israel's security for your political needs," Eisenkot said.

After turnout of nearly 78 percent, the highest since 1999, Eisenkot said it would be a mistake to hold a second election and vowed to work "swiftly" to form a government.

"The public has voted for change," Eisenkot said. "A worthy leader would accept the people's vote of no confidence and announce his retirement from political life today."

Netanyahu did not immediately speak but few expect him to give up. Gideon Saar, Israel's foreign minister and Netanyahu ally, called victory declarations by the opposition "premature".

- Eye on Arab kingmakers -

The three mainstream Israeli television networks in exit polls initially gave a slight edge to the opposition.

By early Wednesday, two networks put the blocs even at 51 seats each, while one network still gave a narrow advantage to the opposition.

Major television networks said that Likud would be the largest single party in the parliament, with 24 to 27 seats. Israeli Arab lists were projected to win 17 to 18 seats, a sharp gain.

Key Israeli Arab leader Mansour Abbas said he believed the right had "suffered a major loss" and was open to working with Eisenkot.

Eisenkot has said he would not govern with Israeli Arab lawmakers -- a scenario that Netanyahu had warned his voters could be a consequence of an opposition victory.

But Arab lawmakers could give Eisenkot support in parliamentary votes to maintain a minority government without joining a coalition. If not, Israel could head to new elections.

Itamar Ben Gvir, a far-right firebrand who according to exit polls did not gain as much as many expected, warned Netanyahu against another option -- a unity government with Eisenkot.

"It would be a terrible mistake," said Ben Gvir, a champion of extremist settlers in the West Bank and expulsion of Palestinians.

Hebrew University of Jerusalem political scientist Gideon Rahat said Ben Gvir had succeeded in mobilising votes -- of Israeli Arabs.

But he said: "Even if Netanyahu lost, that doesn't mean Eisenkot won."

- Divisive -

In a dash to secure as many votes as possible, Netanyahu had charged that Israeli Arabs were out to "steal the election" and his Likud party unsuccessfully asked election authorities to keep polls open past 10:00 pm.

His efforts led the opposition to say he was looking for pretexts to challenge the results.

Israelis cast their ballots in the shadow of Hamas's October 7 attack and the multi-front regional wars that it sparked, with the trauma from the attack still fresh and questions over accountability and security central to the campaign.

The vote came as Israel looks increasingly isolated on the world stage, driven by the war in Iran and the military campaign in Gaza, soaring settlement construction and violence in the occupied West Bank.

Netanyahu himself faces an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court over Gaza as well as domestic corruption charges that could land him in prison if he loses power.

Eisenkot is a political novice whose mild manner is the antithesis of the smooth-talking incumbent.

The son of working-class Moroccan Jewish immigrants, Eisenkot would be the first prime minister of Middle Eastern or North African descent.

Before voting, the 66-year-old Eisenkot paid his respects privately at the grave of his son Gal, whose death fighting in Gaza has drawn empathy from many Israelis.

- Mass turnout -

Tens of thousands of Israelis estimated to have flown in from abroad for an election seen as crucial for their country.

Eilana Zisblit, 55, told AFP she had travelled back from Canada, where she has lived for almost 30 years, to vote for a centre-right party in Eisenkot's bloc.

"The country is going in a really, really bad direction. Both for Jews and Arabs living in the country, and for Jews living abroad," she said.

The time to act is "now, or the country really won't survive anymore".

Netanyahu, 77, who has served as prime minister on and off for more than 19 years, has been quick to allege electoral fraud.

He said Tuesday that three senior officials of the United Arab List had been arrested with envelopes full of cash in the south, an incident that electoral authorities called an isolated, local case.

Netanyahu last returned to power in December 2022, bringing into his coalition far-right ultra-nationalists such as Ben Gvir who were once shunned.

In the last days of the campaign, he posted an image of a nuclear bomb destroying Tel Aviv and talked up his endorsement by US President Donald Trump, who is also fond of alleging election fraud.

R.Moore--SFF