San Francisco Frontiers - Lula's re-election revives Brazil-US tensions

"I didn't take sides but it looked like another rigged election frankly... It was a terrible look for the world," Trump told reporters on Monday a day after Brazil's president pulled off an upset to cling onto power.

Analysts said that does not bode well for bilateral relations.

"If it goes that way and the United States insists that the election is illegitimate, I think that will further increase the hostility between Trump and Lula," Evan Ellis at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, told AFP.

"An embittered Lula, liberated from future elections, may double down on pushing back against the Trump administration on everything -- from its campaign against the cartels, to Cuba, to Iran, Israel, tariffs."

Trump, however, was not entirely sour on Brazil's leftist president, declaring, "I like Lula, I get along with him very well."

Both are seasoned veterans of political confrontations, capable of negotiating but reluctant to make concessions.

Lula, 81, and Trump, 80, have no trouble communicating by phone and have met several times -- showering each other with public praise before reverting to their fundamental disagreements.

The two governments are in a diplomatic impasse. The US still does not have an ambassador stationed in Brasilia, and Brazil's ambassador to Washington finds herself in limbo after her US visa was revoked.

- Partners but rivals -

Despite that standoff, there are shared interests and significant economic ties.

Brazil is the leading trading power in Latin America. It supplies the US, the world's largest economy, with raw materials, coffee and meat -- key products as Trump grapples with persistent inflation at home.

Washington also has an interest in getting Brazil to distance itself from China and wants to conclude agreements on rare earths, crucial for technology and manufacturing.

Lula, who has pointedly proclaimed that Brazil does not fit in anyone's "backyard," will be bolstered on the international stage by securing his fourth presidential term.

His government is the main standard bearer of the Latin American left in the face of the Shield of the Americas, Trump's effort to fight cartels and forge ties with governments in a region that has shifted to the right.

Larissa Wachholz at the Brazilian Center for International Relations expects Brazil to continue to "diversify its relationships."

But on regional security and organized crime, the interests of Washington and Brasilia could converge.

James Story, a former US ambassador and founder of Global Frontier Advisors consultancy, said there's potential for sharing intelligence and financial and banking information.

But if the Shield of the Americas were to organize joint military operations in the region, Brazil would remain on the sidelines, he predicted.

"Brazil charts out its own path on a lot of these issues," Story said. "So I don't anticipate Brazil being particularly helpful...nor do I think the US government is going to approach Brazil to help."

V.Mitchell--SFF