San Francisco Frontiers - Lula celebrates election win as Brazil markets tumble

The leftist president who turns 81 on Tuesday pulled off an improbable victory against the son of far-right ex-leader Jair Bolsonaro, securing 51.8 percent of the vote compared to his challenger's 48.2 percent.

Markets reacted negatively to the outcome, and a plummeting Ibovespa index triggered a 30-minute trading suspension on the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange, which had surged after Bolsonaro's first-round win.

Polls had predicted a slight advantage for the senator, who on Sunday refused to concede defeat.

The historic result hands Lula, already the longest-serving democratically elected leader in Latin America's largest country, an unprecedented fourth term.

It also preserves Brazil as a leftist bastion amid a rising right-wing tide across the region seen favorably by Trump.

The US president has not yet commented on the election result, but congratulations poured in from world leaders on both sides of the political divide.

"Long live democracy, the people of Brazil won," Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on X.

Right-wing governments in Chile, Ecuador and Peru said they wanted to work towards common goals with the region's economic powerhouse.

China echoed that sentiment, while Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also offered his friend Lula his "heartiest congratulations."

- Record support -

Lula pulled around 4.4 million more votes than his rival, totaling over 64.2 million on his seventh go at the presidency -- the highest proportion ever counted in Brazil.

Its shock first-round defeat jolted the left awake, with Lula's campaign staging massive rallies and upping its social media game.

The abstention rate decreased from the first round, falling from 21 percent to 19 percent in the runoff.

The proportion of spoiled and blank votes also decreased.

"I owe this victory to the rebellious youth who rose up to defend democracy," Lula told jubilant supporters in Sao Paulo on Sunday night, his voice scratchier than ever after an intense campaign.

The president also overturned his first-round defeat in the key bellwether state of Minas Gerais.

After a first Bolsonaro administration pockmarked by division, rejection of the former president's son generated much of the support for the incumbent, according to political analyst Thomas Traumann.

It was "the victory of fear over Bolsonaro's return," he told AFP.

"I feel so happy!" said 43-year-old Anna Zanatta in Sao Paulo before bursting into tears of joy.

"Lula's victory represents many things for us: freedom, our democracy, our history," she said.

- 'Unacceptable' -

Chaos surrounded the final hours of Sunday's vote after a Supreme Court ruling extended voting by two hours following complaints about some voters struggling to reach polling stations.

Lula had blasted disrupted bus services which he said barred citizens from voting.

Flavio Bolsonaro also requested an extension in some regions due to heavy rains, but he described the extension as "unacceptable" and a "dirty trick."

"It is impossible to recognize the results. I am going to request the annulment of these elections," he said, stone-faced, in a brief speech in Brasilia.

Bolsonaro's father is serving a 27-year jail term for attempting a coup after his own electoral loss to Lula in 2022.

The senator had sworn to liberate Jair if elected.

Oliver Stuenkel, an international relations professor, does not believe Flavio's refusal to concede will cause as many problems as his father's in 2022.

"The margin was quite significant, so I think it'll be really hard to convince voters that this is the result of vote rigging," he told AFP.

- 'Interference' -

As the rest of the world offers its congratulations to Brazil, Trump has so far remained mute.

On Sunday he said he was "watching" the election, but did not explicitly endorse Flavio Bolsonaro as he has done with other ideologically aligned candidates across Latin America.

During the campaign, Lula accused US tech giant Meta of alleged "interference" in favor of Bolsonaro via "algorithmic manipulation."

Meta, which owns Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram, denies the allegations but previously said that some of Lula's campaign ads had been mistakenly deactivated due to technical errors.

In a speech on Sunday, the Brazilian president promised to rein in big tech.

C.Williams--SFF