San Francisco Frontiers - Nigeria's Tinubu defends record as economy bites ahead of election

"We have prosperity, consistency, growth, recovery and opportunity" Tinubu, who has staked his first term on wide-ranging but grueling economic reforms, told a crowded rally in northwestern Kaduna state.

Since his 2023 election, Tinubu has overhauled the tax code, liberalised the exchange rate and ended a costly fuel subsidy that was bleeding the finances of the country, which pumps millions of barrels of crude per day but refines little domestically.

While investors have praised the reforms as long overdue, ordinary Nigerians have suffered soaring inflation as fuel and other costs skyrocketed.

The opening of Africa's biggest refinery, by billionaire industrialist Aliko Dangote, has done little to stem the pain, which has only been ratcheted up further as the war in Iran squeezes global oil prices.

A years-long rise in the poverty rate, pre-dating Tinubu, has continued, with some 63 percent of Nigerians living below the poverty line, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Earlier this month, acknowledging the widespread economic pain, Tinubu said his reforms "did not create the weaknesses in our economy" but rather "confronted them".

Soon after, his government announced potential price caps on fuel -- the first major acknowledgement of a petrol crisis that has seen prices jump more than 450 percent since his inauguration.

- Divided opposition -

In his speech Saturday, Tinubu repeated his pledge that his second term would see the reforms bear fruit.

"The fuel subsidy is in our past," Tinubu told a packed stadium, where thousands of supporters had been playing music and waving flags with the president's face since early morning.

"There is that promise of a better tomorrow," said Tinubu, wearing flowing robes printed with his red, white, blue and green All Progressives Congress party logo.

Traditional drums, accompanied by more modern, plastic vuvuzelas, kept the energy high in the stadium after supporters had paraded through Kaduna city and danced along the streets the day before.

But the 74-year-old Tinubu kept his speech short, leaving the stage after only about 10 minutes.

With the APC holding 31 out of Nigeria's 36 powerful governorships, Tinubu, known as a skilled political operator, has a vast political machine at his disposal.

The opposition is also divided along similar lines as in 2023, when Tinubu won with just 36.6 percent of the vote.

Also making a run is Atiku Abubakar, the second-place finisher in 2023.

J.Scott--SFF