San Francisco Frontiers - Somalia sets May presidential election despite insecurity

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's second term ended earlier this year but his government declared a "transition period" in May, despite an agreement with the opposition on holding elections.

Mohamud has been attempting to move Somalia towards democratic elections, replacing a system based around clan elders, although his attempts have been opposed by regional leaders, who view it as a power grab.

The Election Commission said in a statement that parliamentary polls would be held on April 15, followed by a presidential vote scheduled for May 15.

In the capital Mogadishu, residents expressed mixed views.

"Announcing an election schedule through a process driven by one side, and rejected by the opposition, is effectively declaring a new conflict," said one, Omar Said.

Mohamud assumed power in 2022 but has argued he was given an extra year in the presidency when an amended constitution was passed by parliament earlier this year that set the framework for elections and extended the vote.

But opposition parties boycotted that vote and have rejected the changes, including the powerful states of Jubaland and Puntland.

"There's no political agreement to hold those elections," analyst Samira Gaid told AFP.

She said that the government was essentially made up of Mogadishu and "two or three allied member states", and expressed concern it would lead to more "conflict and more confrontation within the remaining federal member states".

"All the processes that the government is starting are leading to further fragmentation," she said.

University student Fadumo Ali worried that a disputed federal election "could undermine governance and national unity".

She urged the president to sit down with the opposition, "and agree on the federal election to prevent further turmoil".

Former president Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo said on X the unilateral election decision was a "dangerous threat to Somalia's statehood and future" and urged an agreement with all factions.

Another former president and opposition leading light, 2009-2012 leader Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, said he had taken the constitutional reform programme adopted in March to the Somali courts and warned that a "contested (electoral) process could lead to parallel elections" and even "civil conflict".

The government meanwhile welcomed the polling date announcements as an "important stage ... towards reinforcing the country's democratic system".

It called for all parties to engage with the process "in good faith" and peacefully.

- Insecurity -

With much of the country also under the control of Islamist insurgent group Al-Shabaab, little progress has been made on organising elections beyond a few localised pockets.

Somalia faces uncertainty regarding funding for the African Union mission, AUSSOM, which is the leading force supporting the Somali army.

Although the United States initially said it would cut all funding by the end of 2026, it has subsequently indicated the money will continue to flow for another year.

Meanwhile, clashes have broken out as discontent brews, with the capital seeing heavy gunfire between rival political factions in June ahead of planned demonstrations against Mohamud's political changes.

The government also sent in troops to oust the head of South West State, Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen, in March.

Clashes between federal troops and forces allied to him have erupted sporadically since, including reports of fresh fighting on Thursday.

In Mogadishu, resident Muqtar Hussein said the situation in South West "illustrates the risks of proceeding with disputed elections without political consensus".

But greengrocer Mohamed Hassan was adamant: "I see this as a victory for the Somali people... those willing to participate should proceed, and whoever wins should lead the country."

D.Robinson--SFF