San Francisco Frontiers - Russia loses key ally leader as Putin slams Khamenei 'cynical' killing

Tehran has stood by as one of Russia's closest backers throughout Moscow's four-year offensive and the Kremlin had earlier called for restraint amid reports of imminent US military action in Iran.

But as Washington and Israel launched waves of air strikes Saturday that killed the Islamic republic's longtime supreme leader Khamenei, Russia saw another key ally -- after the leaders of Syria and Venezuela -- toppled.

In January, US President Donald Trump ordered an attack in which US forces snatched Venezuela's leftist leader Maduro.

Washington has also drawn close to Syria's new authorities since the fall of al-Assad in late 2024 that dealt a major blow to Russia's influence in the region.

Russia's "Vladimir Putin will find himself in a difficult position," Alexander Baunov, senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said on social media.

"Twice in two months, Putin has failed to fulfill the role of savior, at least of the life of an allied dictator. And the killer is his friend Trump," Baunov wrote.

In 2025, replying to AFP's question, Putin said he did "not even wish to discuss" the idea Israel might assassinate Iran's Khamenei.

- 'Domino of deposed dictators' -

When the killing was confirmed by Iranian state television on Sunday, the Kremlin published a message with condolences that Putin had sent to Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian.

The Russian leader praised Khamenei as "an outstanding statesman" and said his "assassination" was "carried out in a cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law".

But the Russian authorities have not officially announced any concrete assistance to Tehran.

A day before, amid the ongoing US and Israeli strikes, it was Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi who phoned Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, according to Moscow's read-out of the call.

Lavrov condemned the attack and pledged Russia's readiness "to facilitate the search for peaceful solutions based on international law, mutual respect, and a balance of interests".

There was no mention, however, of any military aid despite a strategic partnership treaty aimed at bolstering ties -- including in military matters -- both countries signed in 2025.

Besides the loss of its key ally Khamenei, the consequences for Moscow of the ongoing conflict in Iran were still difficult to assess.

Russian lawmaker Anatoly Wasserman, interviewed by the newspaper MK.ru, suggested that in the short term, the war could benefit Russia if it leads to a sharp rise in oil prices -- boosting key revenues for its state coffers that fund its invasion of Ukraine.

In the longer term, Wasserman predicted "major problems" for the United States and Israel if the Iranian authorities "resist" the strikes.

For now, Ukraine, who repeatedly accused Iran of providing Moscow with weapons including the Shahed drones and short-range missiles, rejoiced at what it said was a sign Russia's waning influence.

"Russia is not a reliable ally even for those who rely heavily on it," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga said on social media on Sunday.

"The domino of deposed dictators must continue, and Putin's fall one day is inevitable," Sybiga said.

M.Powell--SFF