San Francisco Frontiers - Exit poll suggests centrists win Dutch vote, beating far right

The centrist D66 party was projected to win 27 seats out of 150 in parliament, ahead of Wilders and his far-right PVV Freedom Party with 25 seats, according to the Ipsos poll.

Exit polls in the Netherlands generally provide an accurate reflection of the parliamentary make-up but the seats could change as actual votes are counted.

The centre-right liberal VVD party was predicted to win 23 seats, with the left-wing Green/Labour bloc expected to gain 20.

If confirmed, the result would put D66 leader Rob Jetten, a 38-year-old pro-European, in pole position to become prime minister, subject to coalition talks.

With far-right parties topping the polls in Britain, France, and Germany, the Dutch election was seen as a bellwether of the strength of the far right in Europe.

If the exit poll results are accurate, the PVV lost 12 seats compared to its stunning 2023 election win.

"The Dutch election really mirrors trends across Western Europe," Sarah de Lange, Professor of Dutch Politics at Leiden University, told AFP before the exit poll.

Whatever the result, the anti-Islam, anti-immigration Wilders was virtually certain not to be prime minister, as all other parties had ruled out joining a coalition with him.

The 62-year-old firebrand, sometimes known as the "Dutch Trump", had collapsed the previous government, complaining progress was too slow to achieve "the strictest asylum policy ever".

When the result is finalised, there will be a prolonged period of haggling between the parties to see who wants to work with whom, a process that could take months.

The fragmented Dutch political system means no party can reach the 76 seats needed to govern alone, so consensus and coalition-building are essential.

"It will certainly take time for the Netherlands to reach stability and a new coalition," De Lange told AFP.

"The parties... are ideologically very, very diverse, which will make compromising very challenging."

- 'Heart of Europe' -

Millions of Dutch people cast their votes in a variety of locations including zoos, football stadiums, and windmills.

They had a bewildering range of 27 parties to choose from, meaning each voter had to grapple with a huge A3 sheet of paper containing the candidates.

The main issues have been immigration and a housing crisis that especially affects young people in the densely populated country.

But the other party leaders also ran on a pledge to return stability to the Dutch political scene after two years of chaos since Wilders won the 2023 vote.

Jetten shot up the polls in the final days of the campaign thanks to the fresh-faced 38-year-old's strong media performances.

"I want to bring the Netherlands back to the heart of Europe because without European cooperation, we are nowhere," he told AFP after casting his vote in The Hague.

Frans Timmermans, an experienced former European Commission vice-president, touted himself as a safe pair of hands with strong environmental credentials.

"This is one of the richest countries on the planet, and still, self-confidence is very low," Timmermans, who heads the Green/Labour left-wing alliance, told AFP in a pre-election interview.

"We need to bring that back because there's no issue that we can't solve," said Timmermans, 64, a former foreign minister who speaks six languages.

- 'Not that aggressive' -

Violence and disinformation marred the campaign in the European Union's fifth-largest economy and major global exporter.

Demonstrators against shelters for asylum-seekers clashed with police in several cities, and violence erupted at an anti-immigration protest in The Hague last month.

Wilders was forced to apologise to Timmermans after two party members created AI-generated images to discredit the leftist leader.

"If you accept this job, you know that it will end someday," Schoof told AFP after casting his vote.

Voters appeared to yearn for a return to less polarising politics.

"I think society should be more positive and less negative," Bart Paalman, a 53-year-old baker, told AFP, as cast his vote at the Anne Frank House, converted into a polling station for election day.

"I'm voting for a party who's not that aggressive."

V.Perez--SFF