San Francisco Frontiers - Oil-rich Alberta votes on Canada breakup

Polls indicate less than a quarter of people in the western Canadian province support independence.

But attention has focused on turnout in the days before the vote, and whether a motivated separatist camp could defy the polls, helped by complacency on the federalist side.

"Canada is worth fighting for," Carney said Monday in a post on X, days after he warned people that "turnout will determine the outcome" of the vote.

Carney, who grew up in Alberta, has called the referendum "a dangerous bluff" as US President Donald Trump wages a trade war and levels annexation threats aimed -- the prime minister says -- at breaking Canadian resolve.

Alberta has the world's fourth-largest proven oil reserves and the province's independence push has drawn sustained interest from Trump allies.

Elon Musk, the world's richest person and a top Trump supporter, posted on X this month Alberta "should separate." Separatist leaders have also held meetings at the US State Department and met with Republican political operatives.

- Oil grievances -

Much of Alberta's separatist momentum has been driven by anger over Ottawa's management of the energy sector.

Many Albertans loathed Carney's predecessor, Justin Trudeau, who they accused of trying to suppress oil production to advance his pro-climate agenda.

"If you want me to pinpoint who is responsible for the separatist sentiment, I think it's Justin Trudeau," Alberta Premier Danielle Smith told the Canadaland podcast this month.

At a separatist rally in Edmonton on Saturday, 61-year-old Sandy Martel said people connected to the oil industry feel "robbed, cheated (and) mistreated."

"It's time to stand up and say stop," she told AFP.

The vote comes days after a fire at a military base in the province left at least four soldiers dead and wounded dozens, prompting a national outpouring of condolences.

- 'Huge uncertainty' -

Smith, a conservative, says she wants Alberta to remain in Canada but called the referendum to settle the divisive issue.

If a majority votes to separate, she has pledged to move forward with a binding referendum.

If the federalists win, Smith says the secession question should be considered closed.

Analysts have compared Smith's tactics to those of former UK prime minister David Cameron, who had hoped to resolve the debate over Britain's European Union membership with a vote.

Carney led the Bank of England through the turmoil that surrounded Brexit, and issued a warning to Albertans about that experience on Thursday.

"It wasn't clear what 'Brexit' meant at the time," he told a Calgary television station.

"For the next few years, while that was being determined, there was huge uncertainty, investments stopped, the economy started to underperform," he added, cautioning over unintended economic consequences.

- AI influence -

Monday's referendum features 10 questions, including several related to immigration, but top focus is on question 10, which asks voters to choose between: "Should Alberta remain a province of Canada?" or should the province launch the process for a binding referendum on "whether or not Alberta should separate."

Alberta's election authority says ballots for question 10 will be counted first, with results expected in the early hours Tuesday.

Polls are open from 9:00 am (1500 GMT) to 8:00 pm.

Elections Alberta says 3.1 million are eligible to vote, with 1.4 million people having already cast advanced or special ballots as of Sunday.

W.Thompson--SFF