San Francisco Frontiers - Dutch vote in test for Europe's far right

Polls suggest anti-immigration and anti-Islam firebrand Geert Wilders is narrowly on course to repeat his stunning election success from two years ago with his far-right Freedom Party (PVV).

But with half the electorate still undecided, the result is too close to call, and a pack of three other parties has been closing the gap in recent days.

"It is impossible to tell right now who might win the elections because there are four parties tied for first place," Sarah de Lange, professor of Dutch politics at Leiden University, told AFP.

"And on top of that, over 50 percent of Dutch voters are still undecided," she added.

One thing is virtually certain: Wilders will not be prime minister whatever the result.

He sparked the election by collapsing the previous government in a row over immigration, pulling the PVV out of a fractious four-way coalition.

All mainstream parties have ruled out a partnership with him again, finding him unreliable or his views too unpalatable.

The fragmented Dutch political system means no party can reach the 76 seats needed to govern alone, so consensus and coalition-building are essential.

"The future of our nation is at stake," Wilders told AFP in a pre-election interview.

"Like all over Europe, people are fed up with mass immigration and the change of culture and the influx of people who really do not culturally belong here," said Wilders, sometimes known as the "Dutch Trump."

His score in the Netherlands, the European Union's fifth-largest economy, will be seen as a measure of far-right power as similar parties top polls in France, Germany, and Britain.

- 'Democracy will be dead' -

The main campaign issues have been immigration and a housing crisis that especially affects young people in the densely populated country.

As other parties have already ruled out Wilders, the leader who polls second will most likely become prime minister.

That is currently Frans Timmermans, an experienced former European Commission vice-president who touts himself as a safe pair of hands after months of chaos.

"This is one of the richest countries on the planet, and still, self-confidence is very low," Timmermans, who heads the Green/Labour left-wing alliance, told AFP in an interview.

"We need to bring that back because there's no issue that we can't solve," said Timmermans, 64, a former foreign minister who speaks six languages.

Momentum is with Rob Jetten and his centrist D66 party, which has shot up the polls thanks to the strong media performances of the fresh-faced 38-year-old.

Jetten is campaigning on a positive and optimistic message, seeking to turn the tide on the past two years of Wilders-inspired chaos.

Also running on a stability ticket is centre-right rising star Henri Bontenbal, head of the Christian Democrats (CDA) party.

"I really believe that the Dutch people are not extreme on either side," Bontenbal told AFP.

"Most Dutch people want moderate policies from the political centre," added the 42-year-old, who has not flown privately since 2006 for climate reasons.

The campaign has been marred by violence and disinformation.

Demonstrators against shelters for asylum-seekers have clashed with police in several cities, and an anti-immigration protest in The Hague last month turned violent.

Wilders was forced to apologise to Timmermans after two party members created AI-generated images to discredit the leftist leader.

While the outcome is uncertain, what is clear is that coalition horse-trading will take months -- the last government required 223 days.

Until then, outgoing Prime Minister Dick Schoof will run the country -- reluctantly. "I wouldn't wish it on you," he told one MP in parliament.

Wilders has warned "democracy will be dead" if he wins again but cannot be prime minister.

"I think all hell will break loose if he is ignored again," factory worker Piet Verhasselt told AFP at a recent Wilders rally.

"You can't ignore two and a half to three million votes."

E.Walker--SFF