San Francisco Frontiers - Czechs head to polls with billionaire ex-premier tipped to come first

A possible return to power of the billionaire ex-premier could draw the Czech Republic -- an ally of Ukraine -- closer to EU mavericks Hungary and Slovakia, spelling rocky relations with both Kyiv and Brussels.

But even if Babis's ANO ("Yes") party tops the vote, it will almost certainly have to negotiate a coalition or backing from other parties.

Babis is campaigning in the EU and NATO member of around 11 million people on pledges of welfare and halting military aid to Ukraine.

The current centre-right coalition government of Prime Minister Petr Fiala has provided extensive humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine, but many voters blame it for ignoring problems at home.

"A change is necessary. The Czech Republic must be more autonomous, it must not be just a messenger boy for Brussels," 68-year-old geographer Jaroslav Kolar told AFP.

But doctor Anna Stefanova, 41, told AFP she was afraid of a "sway towards Russia".

Babis was critical of some EU policies while he was prime minister from 2017 to 2021, and is on good terms with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Slovakia's Robert Fico, who have maintained ties with Moscow despite its invasion of Ukraine.

- 'Czechs first' -

Polling stations will open at 1200 GMT and close at 2000 GMT on Friday, before reopening from 0600 to 1200 GMT on Saturday, with the results expected on Saturday evening.

ANO tops the opinion polls with support exceeding 30 percent, ahead of Fiala's Together grouping with about 20 percent.

"We are aiming at a single-party government. We have ruled before with success, with results," the 71-year-old Babis said at a TV debate with Fiala on Wednesday.

Describing himself as a "peacemonger" calling for a truce in Ukraine, Babis has vowed a "Czechs first" approach -- echoing US President Donald Trump -- and pledged "a better life" for all Czechs.

In 2024, Babis co-founded the far-right Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament, which also includes France's National Rally among other parties.

Fiala, a 61-year-old former political science professor, said on X that voters would decide "whether we will continue on the path of freedom, high-quality democracy, security and prosperity, or whether we will go east".

- 'Pragmatic businessman' -

But Charles University analyst Josef Mlejnek told AFP he did not expect "a fundamental change" if Babis wins.

"Babis is a pragmatic businessman and the only thing he cares about is being prime minister," he added.

Analysts caution, however, that all will depend on the election results.

If Babis's party comes first but fails to win a majority, he could try to pursue a coalition with the far-right opposition SPD movement, which is backed by about 12 percent of voters, according to analysts.

Some concerns about Russian propaganda being spread online to influence the elections have also emerged, though analysts say they cannot see a big shift in voter sentiment so far.

A group of analysts said last week that Czech TikTok accounts reaching millions of viewers "systematically spread pro-Russian propaganda and support anti-system parties through manipulated engagement".

Both Babis and Fiala have seen scandals tarnish their reputations.

Fiala's government is under fire over the justice ministry's decision to accept $44 million in bitcoins from a convicted criminal.

Babis, Slovak-born and the seventh-wealthiest Czech according to Forbes magazine, is due to stand trial for EU subsidy fraud worth more than $2 million.

Babis allegedly took his farm near Prague out of his Agrofert food and chemicals holding company in 2007 to make it eligible for a subsidy for small firms.

He has rejected all allegations of wrongdoing as "a smear campaign".

N.Flores--SFF