San Francisco Frontiers - Canada awaits result in Alberta independence vote

Prime Minister Mark Carney has argued the vote has been held "at the worst possible time," citing the need for national stability as US President Donald Trump wages a trade war and levels annexation threats.

Polls indicated less than a quarter of people in the western province want independence, but separatist leader Mitch Sylvestre told AFP on Monday he remained optimistic.

"We're hoping to win," Sylvestre, who heads the Alberta Prosperity Project, said at a restaurant in the provincial capital Edmonton where his side was watching the returns.

"Tonight isn't the finish line. We've awoken something in this province and that spirit isn't going anywhere," he told the crowd.

Alberta's elections authority said all polls had closed by 10:10 pm (0410 GMT Tuesday), but vote counting had been underway for several hours, including tallies of the 1.4 million advance ballots cast. There are 3.1 million eligible voters in the province.

It was not immediately clear when a projected result would emerge.

At the federalist election night party in Edmonton, a band warmed up ahead of an anticipated positive result.

"It was amazing to see the enthusiasm and resolve among Canadians," said Thomas Lukaszuk, who heads Forever Canadian, the group that campaigned across the province for national unity.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, a conservative, said she voted against independence but called the referendum to settle an issue that has divided the province.

If a majority wants to separate, she has pledged to hold a binding referendum.

If the federalists win, Smith said the secession question should be considered closed.

- Foreign influence? -

Alberta has the world's fourth-largest proven oil reserves, and much of the separatist momentum has been driven by anger over oil industry management.

Smith has blamed Carney's predecessor Justin Trudeau for igniting the separatist fire, accusing him of trying to crush oil production to advance his pro-climate agenda.

Alberta's independence push has also drawn sustained interest from Trump allies.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called Alberta a "natural partner" for the United States. Elon Musk, the world's richest person and a top Trump supporter, posted on X this month that Alberta "should separate."

Separatist leaders have also held meetings at the US State Department and with Republican political operatives.

- 'Huge uncertainty' -

Carney, who grew up in Alberta, has worked to improve relations between the province and Ottawa since taking office last year.

He has partnered with Smith on advancing a new pipeline to export more Alberta bitumen overseas, a project considered a nonstarter during Trudeau's tenure.

But he has also warned Albertans that even a nonbinding vote on independence would be a "dangerous bluff," drawing on his experience during Brexit, when he was the Bank of England's governor.

He said the "huge uncertainty" that followed the Brexit vote hurt the British economy, cautioning Alberta over unintended economic consequences.

Sylvestre said Carney "threatened" the province in the closing days of the campaign.

Carney's message was "voting against Canada is dangerous," Sylvestre said, calling that "very unreasonable."

Haley Erdegard, a 44-year-old who voted in Edmonton, voiced discomfort with the idea advanced by some separatists that Alberta is forced to share too much of its oil revenue with the rest of Canada.

"I think we probably need to put some more work towards cooperation before making rash decisions about trying to start our own country," she told AFP.

K.Hernandez--SFF