San Francisco Frontiers - Georgia risks political turmoil over weekend vote

The usually uneventful local elections set for October 4 have taken on an extra edge with the government's far-reaching crackdown on independent media, opposition parties and civil society.

Those groups have called on supporters to flood the streets on Saturday, hoping to reignite a wave of demonstrations against the ruling Georgian Dream party.

The country has been in a protracted crisis since parliamentary elections last year that opposition groups say were rigged.

Georgian Dream then further inflamed public anger when it suspended Tbilisi's bid for EU membership and set about arresting and isolating its opponents with police raids, repressive legislation and forceful dispersal of protestors -- drawing rebukes from Brussels and Washington.

One of the protest leaders, opera star-turned-activist Paata Burchuladze, has called for a "national assembly" on October 4, urging the party be toppled in a peaceful transfer of power.

"Georgian Dream is wrecking our democracy and our European future. They have got to go," architect Levan Baramidze, 31, told AFP in Tbilisi.

"Saturday's rally will show our strength," he added.

- 'Deep state' -

In power since 2012, Georgian Dream first pitched itself as a pro-European liberal alternative to long-time reformist leader Mikheil Saakashvili, a pro-Western heavyweight who had become increasingly divisive at home and is now in prison.

Backed by eccentric billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, the party spent a decade consolidating power.

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine it has been accused of moving Tbilisi closer to Russia and adopting Russian-inspired repressive legislation, including a "foreign agents" law and anti-LGBTQ measures.

The moves triggered uproar in a country that is generally fiercely anti-Russian.

Georgian Dream rejects the charges and says it is promoting "stability" in the nation of around four million that is wedged between major players Russia, Turkey and Iran.

Analysts say the party's simple message -- with the opposition, war; with us, peace -- lands well, particularly in rural areas. It is amplified by disinformation and narratives that are tinged with conspiracy theories.

A recent poll by Georgia's Institute of Social Studies and Analysis put the party's approval rating at more than 35 percent.

Older voters on the streets of the capital Tbilisi told AFP they agreed with the party's claims a "deep state" was trying to drag Georgia into the war in Ukraine.

"Some Western forces pushed Georgia to open a second front against Russia," said pensioner Ramin Svanidze, 73.

"Our government didn't cave. That's why Georgian and foreign liberals hate it," he added.

- 'Tragic' -

Rights groups say authorities have jailed around 60 people since last year's protests, including key opposition leaders, activists and journalists.

Other opposition groups and independent media outlets have seen heavy fines, raids by security services and police violence.

Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze has accused organisers of Saturday's protest of promoting "radicalism" and pledged a "strict" response towards any violence.

The European Union has sanctioned several officials over previous crackdowns on protestors.

It has also warned it could suspend the country's visa-free regime without progress on rule of law and rights commitments.

But the opposition itself is bitterly divided.

Some parties, including Saakashvili's United National Movement, are backing a plan to boycott the local votes and stage mass demonstrations.

But others -- such as Lelo and For Change -- will stand candidates and have downplayed the prospects for the rally.

Tamar Chergoleishvili of the Federalists opposition party urged organisers "not to inflate expectations among desperate citizens".

In Tbilisi, schoolteacher Guliko Archvadze, 50, was also resigned.

"We were in the streets for months by the tens of thousands, and nothing changed," he told AFP, calling the situation in Georgia "tragic and desperate".

"One more huge rally won't bring down Georgian Dream," she added.

V.Mitchell--SFF