San Francisco Frontiers - S Korea opposition leader frontrunner in snap presidential election

The opposition leader is likely to step down this week so he can secure the Democratic Party's nomination. A charismatic former child factory worker turned lawyer, Lee is as popular as he is divisive.

In the polls, Lee sits well ahead of any rivals, with 34 percent supporting him.

After an industrial accident left him with a disability, the former school dropout rose to political stardom partly by highlighting his rags-to-riches tale.

But his bid for the top office in 2022 was overshadowed by a string of scandals, and he ended up losing to Yoon by just 0.73 percentage points.

He currently faces five criminal trials on charges including bribery in connection with a firm that is suspected of illicitly transferring $8 million to North Korea.

Five individuals connected to Lee's various scandals have been found dead, many in what appeared to be suicides.

Lee "is seen as a politician's politician -- willing to play dirty to beat the (conservative) People Power Party," Karl Friedhoff at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs told AFP.

"Even then, he couldn't beat Yoon -- someone with literally no political experience -- in the previous election."

- 'Loyal fan base' -

South Korea has been in leadership limbo since lawmakers suspended Yoon Suk Yeol for sending armed troops into parliament in a botched attempt to suspend civilian rule. He was stripped of office by a court last week, triggering fresh elections on June 3.

Lee, 61, live-streamed his frantic drive to parliament and scramble over the perimeter fence as he and other MPs voted down the martial law declaration. Since then, Lee has consistently been regarded as the leading contender for the presidency.

He is also widely recognised for his extensive political experience. He served as mayor of Seongnam, near Seoul, for eight years and as governor of Gyeonggi Province, the most populous province surrounding the capital, for more than three years.

"It is fair to say Lee exhibited strong political leadership during his tenure as both mayor and governor, which helped him build a loyal fan base -- which is not something every politician can achieve," Park Sang-byung, a political commentator, told AFP.

Last year, a man stabbed Lee in the neck to prevent him from "becoming president", with the politician suffering a wound to his jugular vein and undergoing emergency surgery.

- 'Flexible person' -

Yoon and PPP's extreme support base, including far-right YouTubers and religious figures, brand Lee a dangerous and corrupt North Korean sympathiser.

Lee has also faced calls from within his party to resign over his scandals.

But a landslide victory for the Democratic Party in last year's parliamentary elections helped Lee consolidate power.

"Since the Democratic Party will control both the administration and legislature if Lee Jae-myung gets elected, the country's political diversity might be limited," Shin Yul, a political science professor at Myongji University, told AFP.

But he added that Lee would be well-equipped to tackle the various challenges facing the country, including North Korean aggression and the volatile Trump administration, which recently imposed a 25 percent tariff on South Korean exports.

"Based on Lee Jae-myung's track record, it is evident that he is a flexible person. He also has not always been predictable," Shin said.

"This adaptability suggests he is likely to handle various situations pragmatically, which could be a significant advantage when dealing or negotiating with people like Trump."

V.Perez--SFF