San Francisco Frontiers - Modi hopes to rekindle Trump bromance

For nearly three decades, US presidents from both parties have prioritized building ties with India, seeing a natural partner against a rising China. But Trump has also raged against India over trade, in the past calling the world's fifth-largest economy the "biggest tariff abuser."

Trump himself has unapologetically weaponized tariffs against friends and foes since returning to office last month. Ahead of Modi's visit, the Indian government slashed duties on high-end motorcycles -- a boost to Harley-Davidson, the iconic American company whose struggles in motorbike-loving India have captured Trump's attention.

India has "done its groundwork and has already taken positive steps to set a good tone" with Trump, said Lisa Curtis, the National Security Council director on South Asia during Trump's first term.

Modi "has prepared for this, and he is seeking to preempt Trump's anger," said Curtis, now a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

Modi has also obliged Trump on one of his top priorities -- deporting undocumented immigrants.

While public attention has focused on Latin American migrants, India is the third source of undocumented immigrants in the United States after Mexico and El Salvador.

In an account that drew wide attention in India, some 100 migrants were flown back from the United States in shackles the whole journey. Angered activists in New Delhi burned an effigy of Trump.

The main opposition Congress party called the treatment of Indian citizens an "insult" and accused Modi of weakness toward Trump.

But Modi's Hindu-nationalist government -- which itself has vowed no tolerance for undocumented migrants from Muslim-majority Bangladesh -- has promised cooperation.

- 'Recreate their bonhomie' -

Modi arrives Wednesday in Washington after an artificial intelligence summit in Paris and will see Trump on Thursday, making him the fourth world leader to visit him at the White House since his return, following the prime ministers of Israel and Japan and king of Jordan.

Modi assiduously courted Trump during his first term. The two share much in common, with both campaigning on promises to promote the interests of their countries' majority communities over minorities and both shifting long-held democratic norms by doggedly pursuing critics.

In February 2020, Modi invited Trump before a cheering crowd of more than 100,000 people to inaugurate the world's largest cricket stadium, later renamed for the prime minister himself, in his home state of Gujarat.

It remains the last presidential trip made overseas by Trump, with the Covid-19 pandemic grounding him soon afterward.

"Prime Minister Modi and his advisors hope that he and President Trump are able to recreate their bonhomie of the past and use that to ensure India avoids any negative trade-related actions or sanctions," said Aparna Pande, a fellow at the Hudson Institute.

India, she said, "remains one of the few countries that retains bipartisan support across the aisle in the US."

President Joe Biden kept building relations with Modi including by elevating the Quad -- a four-way grouping of Australia, India, Japan and the United States, perceived by China as an attempt to box it in -- by holding annual summits.

India is scheduled to hold a Quad summit this year, which would mean another visit to India by Trump.

The Biden administration, however, occasionally offered gentle critiques on Modi's record on the rights of Muslims and other minorities, an issue unlikely to resonate with Trump.

The Biden team issued stronger criticism, albeit privately, after US prosecutors said that India attempted to assassinate a Sikh separatist with US citizenship in New York.

Curtis said that she believed that India has "learned a lesson" from Biden's warning on the plot and that the issue was effectively closed.

"I think that the Trump administration is hoping to move on from this issue," she said.

C.Williams--SFF