San Francisco Frontiers - Croatia's populist president appears set for re-election

Milanovic enters the contest with surging momentum as he faces off with Dragan Primorac, supported by the HDZ party that governs Croatia.

The outspoken incumbent, backed by the left-wing opposition, won more than 49 percent of the vote two weeks ago during the contest's first round -- narrowly missing an outright victory.

Primorac garnered less than 20 percent of the ballots, making it unlikely that he could make up ground in the runoff.

A landslide win by Milanovic would be the latest setbacks for the HDZ and Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic -- Milanovic's political arch-rival -- after a high-profile corruption scandal in November.

According to a survey published Thursday, Milanovic was projected to capture more than 62 percent of ballots cast compared to nearly 28 percent for Primorac.

The vote comes as the European Union member nation of 3.8 million people struggles with the highest inflation rate in the eurozone, endemic corruption and a labour shortage.

- 'Counterbalance' -

Although Croatia's presidential powers are limited, many believe the post is key to maintaining a political balance in the country.

The former Yugoslav republic has been mainly governed by the HDZ since declaring independence in 1991.

"I'm not a fan of Milanovic but will vote 'against HDZ'," said Mia, a 35-year-old administrator from Zagreb who declined to give her last name.

"It has too much control and Plenkovic is transforming into an autocrat," she told AFP.

Milanovic, a former left-wing prime minister, took over the presidency in 2020 with the backing of the main opposition Social Democrats (SDP) party.

A key figure in the country's political scene for nearly two decades, he has increasingly employed offensive, populist rhetoric during frequent attacks aimed at EU and local officials.

"Milanovic is a sort of a political omnivore," political analyst Zarko Puhovski told AFP, saying the president was largely seen as the "only, at least symbolic, counterbalance to the government and Plenkovic's power".

The no-holds-barred speaking style has sent Milanovic's popularity soaring and helped attract the backing of right-wing supporters.

On Thursday, he called on voters to "not to let the president be elected by Plenkovic, who wants a pushover who will carry out his personal will" -- a reference to Primorac.

Milanovic regularly pans the HDZ over the party's perennial problems with corruption, while also referring to Plenkovic as "Brussels' clerk".

- Insults fly -

Primorac -- a former education and science minister returning to politics after a 15-year absence -- has campaigned as a unifier for Croatia.

But critics say the 59-year-old career academic and businessman lacks political charisma and has failed to rally the HDZ base behind him.

Primorac has repeatedly accused Milanovic of being a "pro-Russian puppet" who has undermined Croatia's credibility in NATO and the European Union.

Milanovic, who condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has nonetheless been a frequent critic of the West's military support for Kyiv.

He has also been a prominent opponent of a programme that would have seen Croatian soldiers help train Ukrainian troops in Germany.

During the campaign, the two rivals have traded frequent insults.

Milanovic said his rival had the "brain of a pigeon and not a crow, which is intelligent", while Primorac called the president a "disgrace" and a "coward".

Voting stations open at 07:00 am (0600 GMT) and close twelve hours later, when exit polls are expected.

Official results are due later Sunday.

N.Wilson--SFF