San Francisco Frontiers - Croatia's populist president tipped for re-election

The outspoken Milanovic won more than 49 percent of the vote in the first round of the election in late December, narrowly missing an outright victory in the contest by less than one percent.

His main rival, Dragan Primorac, garnered less than 20 percent of the ballots cast, making it unlikely that he can make up ground in the runoff.

Primorac is backed by the ruling conservative HDZ party of Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic, which was hit last year by corruption claims and survived a no-confidence vote in parliament.

A landslide win by Milanovic would be seen as further humiliation for the beleaguered HDZ and Plenkovic, whom he has frequently criticised for being too close to Brussels and for wanting too much power.

Despite its largely ceremonial role, many believe the Croatian presidency is key to keeping the political balance in the country.

The vote comes as the European Union member nation of 3.8 million people struggles with the highest inflation rate in the eurozone, endemic corruption and a labour shortage.

- Balance of power -

Milanovic, a former left-wing prime minister, was elected to the presidency in 2020 as the main opposition Social Democrats' candidate.

The 58-year-old president has been a key figure in the country's political scene for nearly two decades and has increasingly relied on offensive rhetoric during his frequent attacks aimed at EU and local officials.

The angry rants have helped build a larger base with right-wing nationalists drawn to his populist message.

"Milanovic is a sort of a political omnivore," political analyst Zarko Puhovski told AFP.

During the campaign, Milanovic portrayed himself as a bulwark against complete dominance by Plenkovic and the HDZ, which has been in power since 2016.

"Croatia will not be a country in which one man decides on everything," he wrote on Facebook recently, referring to Plenkovic.

Croatia has mainly been governed by the HDZ since independence in 1991.

Milanovic, whose powers as president extend to control over the armed forces and a say in foreign policy, regularly pans Plenkovic and his HDZ over the party's issues with corruption and close ties to Brussels.

"Milanovic has presented himself as the only figure to clearly and efficiently oppose the very successful but arrogant, and for some irritating, prime minister," commented the Globus weekly.

Puhovski stressed that the president has succeeded in establishing himself as a firm defender of Croatia's domestic interests, rather than being "Brussels' clerk" -- a label Milanovic has often used to describe Plenkovic.

Hrvoje, a 43-year-old teacher from Zagreb who did not want to give his family name, did not vote in the first round but said he will back Milanovic on Sunday.

"The president does not have much power but it's important to have a loud counterbalance to HDZ," he told AFP.

- 'Puppet' -

Primorac -- a former education and science minister -- is hoping to spoil Milanovic's re-election bid and cement his political comeback after a 15-year absence.

The 59-year-old career academic and businessman is running a campaign vowing to be a unifier in Croatia, while also promoting patriotism and family values.

Primorac has slammed Milanovic, calling the president a pro-Kremlin figure who is "harming" Croatia's credibility in NATO and the EU.

Milanovic, who condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has also been a frequent critic of the West's military support for Kyiv.

The president was a prominent opponent of a programme that would have seen Croatian soldiers help train Ukrainian troops in Germany.

"This is not our war and our people will not go there," he said recently.

On Tuesday, the candidates traded frequent barbs during their only televised debate.

Milanovic accused Primorac of being "totally illiterate", while the HDZ candidate called the president a "pro-Russian puppet" who "divided" Croatia.

G.Miller--SFF