San Francisco Frontiers - Egypt apprehensive over Islamist win in Syria

Egypt backed president Bashar al-Assad until the eleventh hour, and with the Islamists of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) now in control in Syria, it worries what impact the change might have.

"For Egypt, this creates of course apprehension, especially given the Brotherhood's history in the country," said Merissa Khurma, director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center think tank in Washington.

Several other Arab states moved swiftly to engage with the new authorities in Damascus, while Cairo has exercised greater caution.

Having declared Egypt's support for Assad just three days before his ouster, Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty waited three weeks before calling his new Syrian counterpart and urged the de facto authorities to practise "inclusivity".

Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani confirmed the call had taken place, and said that the two countries shared a role in "achieving stability and prosperity for region".

On Saturday, an Egyptian aid plane touched down at Damascus airport carrying Cairo's first humanitarian aid delivery since Assad's ousting, the Egyptian foreign ministry said.

- Treading lightly -

In the days following the overthrow of Assad, Sisi's comments were non-committal.

"Those who make the decisions in Syria are the people of the country," he said.

"They can either destroy it or rebuild it," he told a gathering of state-affiliated media figures.

"Egypt's reaction has been massively cautious," Mirette Mabrouk, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, told AFP.

"Here you have non-state actors as well as Islamists which are both Egypt's red flags."

Domestically, Cairo has moved against any possibility that events in Syria might inspire unrest at home.

According to the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights, a rights group, the security forces detained 30 Syrians celebrating Assad's fall, with three of them facing deportation.

The authorities also tightened visa restrictions for Syrians, requiring them to receive security clearance.

In the hours after Assad was toppled, state-aligned media hailed Egypt's stability in the face of regional turmoil.

It broadcast a montage combining scenes of unrest, military drills and development projects, accompanied by a 2017 speech in which Sisi claimed that forces behind the war in Syria could turn their sights on Egypt.

"Their mission in Syria is complete," Sisi said at the time, adding that "their goal is to bring down the Egyptian state."

Anger was further stoked by the sharing online of a photograph of Syria's new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa posing alongside Mahmoud Fathi, a Muslim Brotherhood figure who was sentenced to death in absentia for the assassination of Egypt's former public prosecutor Hisham Barakat.

Lebanese authorities also arrested Egyptian opposition activist Abdul Rahman al-Qaradawi on an Egyptian warrant after he celebrated Assad's fall online.

Qaradawi had called for a renewal of the 2011 Arab Spring protests that overthrew Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak.

Mubarak's removal was followed by a democratic election won by the Muslim Brotherhood, until Sisi took power in 2013.

- Shifting dynamics -

Assad's fall has upended the Middle East's geopolitical balance, diminishing the influence of Iran while significantly boosting Turkey.

While Iran backed Assad, Turkey had for decades backed Syria's opposition.

For Egypt, Turkey's win is cause for concern, given the two powers' long-standing rivalry.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan cut ties with Sisi after the ouster of the Muslim Brotherhood, and they remained frozen for a decade until a recent rapprochement.

"Of course, there's the regional overlay, which is this being backed most closely by Turkey, Egypt's regional rival and a Muslim Brotherhood-aligned regime," said David Schenker a top former US diplomat and senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Despite initial reticence from some, Gulf nations including Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar have already established contact with Syria's new rulers.

Schenker said Egypt, which sees itself as a regional heavyweight, "will not want to be isolated" in its approach.

Any Egyptian support will likely come with conditions, however.

Mabrouk at the Middle East Institute said Cairo would like to see a power-sharing arrangement among Syria's various groups.

"The bigger picture is of course concerns over the possibility of mistreating minorities leading to domestic instability and then resulting in regional unrest," she said.

"For Egypt, everything boils down to security and interests," she added.

J.Peterson--SFF