San Francisco Frontiers - Top US Republican fights for future in cliffhanger vote

Having seized the gavel in a palace coup in 2023, the Louisiana conservative is vying for reelection as speaker of the House of Representatives and has President-elect Donald Trump's backing as the deeply divided Congress opens for the new term.

But Johnson is seen by hardliners on his own side as overly consensual and soft on spending cuts, and is hanging on by a thread as Washington's top lawmaker -- the congressional leader who presides over House business.

There will be intrigue until the last ballot is cast, with the 52-year-old attorney's ambitions up in flames if more than one member of the threadbare 219-215 Republican majority defects, assuming all members are present and voting.

It took 15 rounds of voting over four days to elect Kevin McCarthy to the speaker's podium at the start of the last Congress and he was ousted and replaced by Johnson 10 months later in a rebellion that paralyzed the body for weeks.

If there is no speaker by Monday, Congress will not be able to certify Trump's election victory and the Republican -- who only gets one more term, having served in the White House from 2017-21 -- will face delays in implementing his agenda.

But Johnson's fate rests with at least a dozen lawmakers on the Republican right who have chafed at his handling of major spending bills and are opposing him or withholding support, with one saying he is a firm "no."

Eleven Republicans voted to oust Johnson in May after he angered the Trumpist wing by bringing a massive Ukraine aid package to the floor.

- 'Least objectionable' -

"We're in constant conversation about all this. I think that those members, and all of them, want to be a part of these solutions," Johnson told Fox News on Monday.

"They made big promises to their constituents in this campaign cycle, and we've got to deliver upon them."

All 215 Democrats are expected to vote for their leader, Hakeem Jeffries, as they did when Johnson first won the gavel.

If Johnson falls short, the process continues to a second ballot, probably also on Friday.

Failure in subsequent rounds would open the path for a potential rearguard action from anti-Johnson conservatives, and cloak-and-dagger talks between the two parties that could see the emergence of a consensus Republican backed by Democrats.

But no credible alternative to Johnson has been floated publicly.

House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Majority Whip Tom Emmer and Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan have shown previous interest in the job, but all failed to win the gavel in 2023 when Johnson prevailed.

The speaker has been working the phones over the holiday, although it is not clear how he could appease detractors, and congressional media outlet Punchbowl News quoted aides who said Johnson was not interested in "backroom deals."

The more he is seen as giving away the store to critics on the right, the more likely he is to alienate moderates, upping the potential for strife between Senate and House Republicans, where there is already little love lost.

"He was only electable the first time because he hadn't held any type of leadership position, nor had he ever fought for anything, so no one disliked him and everyone was tired of voting," Kentucky conservative Thomas Massie, the only declared no vote, posted on X.

"He won by being the least objectionable candidate, and he no longer possesses that title."

Q.Taylor--SFF