San Francisco Frontiers - Pride and fear in Iran after missile attack on Israel

Local media carried footage of what Iran said were 200 missiles as they were fired towards Israel on Tuesday evening, while state television played upbeat music over the images and showed crowds of a few hundred people celebrating the attacks in the capital and other cities across the country.

Some carried the yellow flag of Hezbollah, Iran's ally in Lebanon, as well as portraits of its chief Hassan Nasrallah who was killed in an Israeli air strike last week.

Speaking at a gathering in Palestine Square in central Tehran late Tuesday, Hedyeh Gholizadeh, 29, said she felt "a sense of pride" by Iran's retaliation, which analysts said reflected pressure on the country to react to a series of Israeli-inflicted humiliations.

"We are ready to accept all the consequences, whatever they may be, and we are ready to pay the penalty and we have no fear," said Gholizadeh.

There was little sign of the previous evening's celebrations on Wednesday morning in Tehran, with traffic humming along as usual while cafes and restaurants buzzed with customers.

Israel's vow to avenge the missile attacks, backed by similar threats from the United States, has unsettled some people who fear the country stumbling into a full-blown war through tit-for-tat reactions.

"I am really worried because if Israel wants to take retaliatory measures, it will lead to an expansion of the war," said Mansour Firouzabadi, a 45-year-old nurse in Tehran. "Everyone is worried about it."

- 'Bolder move' -

Analysts see the Iranian missile strike as a consequence of a string of setbacks suffered by Tehran and its strategy of building up allies across the region in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, Syria and the Palestinian territories.

Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah chief Nasrallah was killed alongside Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Abbas Nilforoushan, while Palestinian Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran on July 31.

Ali Vaez from the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think-tank, said Iran took "a calculated risk in April" when it fired missiles and drones at Israel, most of which were intercepted, in its first ever direct attack.

The barrage was ordered after an Israeli air strike on Iran's consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus which killed two Iranian generals.

"Now, with an even bolder move (on Tuesday), the regime's actions reflect the deepening challenges it faces as its most critical partners have been weakened on multiple fronts," Vaez said.

"Failing to respond might have further eroded its credibility with these allies, giving the impression that Tehran was content to remain passive", he said.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is due to deliver a rare speech at Friday prayers this week, according to local media, during which he is widely expected to set the tone for the way forward.

The last time Khamenei led Friday prayers was after Iran launched ballistic missiles on air bases of US forces in Iraq following the 2020 killing of revered Revolutionary Guards commander Qasem Soleimani in a US drone strike near the Iraqi capital, Baghdad.

Speaking at a gathering of Iranian students on Wednesday, Khamenei said he was still in mourning for Nasrallah and that his death was "not a small matter."

- 'Far from over' -

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran had refrained from responding to Haniyeh's killing in Tehran during his inauguration in July, fearing that it could derail US-backed efforts for a ceasefire in the Gaza war.

But the promises the United States and its allies of a "ceasefire in exchange for Iran's non-reaction to Haniyeh's killing were completely false," he said on Sunday.

Israel's military campaign continues there even as it steps up its war with Hezbollah in neighbouring Lebanon.

Following Tuesday's attack by Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Tehran "made a big mistake tonight and will pay for it," while the United States warned of "severe consequences".

Former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett called on Wednesday for a decisive strike to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps meanwhile threatened a "crushing attack" if Israel responded, and warned against any direct military intervention in support of Israel.

Vaez from the International Crisis Group says while Tehran has signalled "the chapter is closed ... the reality is far from that."

"The final word on this conflict lies, not with Iran, but with Israel and the United States," he said.

"And if the latest developments in Gaza, Lebanon, and even Yemen's Huthi movements are any indication, this confrontation is far from over."

I.Sanders--SFF