San Francisco Frontiers - Abascal: face of Spain's far right and likely kingmaker

An active member of the conservative Popular Party (PP) since his teens, the former local politician from the northern Basque Country founded Vox in late 2013 after cutting ties with the "cowardly right wing".

Built like a pitbull, with an impeccably trimmed beard and piercing eyes, the 47-year-old is known for his populist rhetoric, whether defending Spain's unity against Catalan and Basque separatists, Spaniards against migrants, men against feminists or farmers against ecologists.

Known for its ultra-conservative proposals that have repeatedly sparked outrage, Vox has been parliament's third-largest party since 2019 and is now offering its "outstretched hand" to the PP to oust Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and "save Spain from catastrophe".

Since the right's victory in the May 28 local and regional elections, the PP has accepted that offer, making deals with Vox to jointly rule in several municipalities and regions, among them Valencia.

And if polls are correct, and the right wins the upcoming vote, they could do the same at the national level.

Although Abascal has been hard on the PP in the past, "he knows very well how to adapt to the political context", said Alexandra Palau, an expert on contemporary Spain at the University of Burgundy.

But to enter government, Abascal "needs to come across as slightly less aggressive", she told AFP.

- 'Knight of the realm?' -

On Instagram, Abascal appears to have distanced himself from manly poses, these days preferring to show himself as a good father to his four children from two marriages, a nature-loving hiker or with his arm around a pensioner.

But in his campaign videos, he likes to show off his "more patriarchal side", said Palau.

Several years ago, Abascal released a campaign video of himself riding a horse across the plains to "reconquer" Spain, backed by a rousing soundtrack from "The Lord of the Rings".

The imagery made a clear allusion to the Reconquista, a series of medieval wars to recapture territory from the Muslims who occupied most of the Iberian Peninsula in the early 8th century.

"He portrays himself as a knight, with religious references and an emphasis on combat and masculinity", said Palau.

It is, she said, a "simple, binary" form of communication peppered with false assertions that has echoes of Donald Trump's style.

Born in Bilbao and raised in Amurrio, a village in the Basque Country where his grandfather was mayor during the Franco dictatorship, Abascal has said his father -- a local PP councillor -- escaped three assassination attempts by the now-defunct Basque separatist group ETA.

Having engineered a return of the far right for the first time since Spain's dictatorship ended in 1975, Abascal has regularly accused the left of "dividing Spaniards" by giving greater recognition to Franco-era victims.

And he has railed against the government's "desecration" of the late dictator's tomb in 2019 when it moved his remains from a grandiose mausoleum to an ordinary grave.

- A shrewd strategist -

Abascal is accustomed to controversy.

During the campaign, he angered many by rejecting the concept of "gender violence" -- abuse perpetrated by a man against a woman -- and fought against LGBTQ banners being hung on public buildings during Pride Month in places where Vox rules with the PP.

The party's extreme positions, notably on abortion, have deeply embarrassed the PP which may well be forced to rule in a coalition with Vox, raising difficult questions for voters.

Over the years, Abascal has shown himself to be a shrewd strategist, said Andres Santana Leitner, a political scientist from Madrid's Autonomous University.

Until now, he says, he has asked for nothing from the PP in exchange for the party's local or regional support since Vox first gained traction in late 2018, awaiting his moment with the patience of someone growing a bonsai tree -- one of Abascal's passions.

And he can now demand "something in return" for his support, Leitner said, such as a seat in the government if his support turns out to be essential for the PP to rule.

F.Edwards--SFF