San Francisco Frontiers - Reformist frontrunner faces hurdles as Thai MPs pick new PM

It is a pivotal moment in the aftermath of his progressive party's shock May election success, with fears for renewed political instability in a country that has seen more than a dozen military coups in the last century.

To win, Pita needs support from at least some members of the country's more established parties and junta-appointed senators, who were spooked by his Move Forward Party's (MFP) victory and horrified by its plans to amend the kingdom's strict royal defamation laws.

Further complicating his path to top office, Pita faces the threat of parliamentary suspension, in one of two cases that have been filed against him and his party.

He was nonetheless bullish ahead of Thursday's session, where lawmakers will debate for long hours before beginning to cast their votes.

"I am confident in myself that I will work with my full capacity to respond to people's hopes and the support that they gave to me," Pita told reporters ahead of the session opening.

By early afternoon, a couple of hundred Pita supporters gathered along the streets outside parliament.

Suppatra Namthongchai, 59, told AFP the cases brought against Pita and his party just ahead of the vote looked like "bullying".

"Why did you decide to do it yesterday... this is you bullying him -- that is how people view this," she said.

Patchaya Saelim, 17, said he was unhappy that police had set up shipping containers -- covered in images of Thai tourist sites -- to keep protesters away.

"We're a democratic country. We can gather to protest," he said.

- 'Fully qualified' -

Thais rejected the government of Prayut Chan-o-cha during the May elections, and Pita's MFP has since formed an eight-party coalition that includes election runners-up Pheu Thai.

But the chances of Pita leading it into government look increasingly slim.

The coalition holds 312 seats, short of the 375 it needs across parliament to claim the prime ministership.

Support is unlikely in the military-appointed, 250-member Senate because of the MFP's push to reform Thailand's law banning defamation or insults of the royal family.

His plans to shake up the country's powerful business monopolies have also sparked concern.

Another hurdle emerged Wednesday when the Election Commission (EC) recommended Pita's suspension from parliament over allegations he broke campaign rules -- a move the MFP branded as an "abuse of power".

The recommendation followed a probe into Pita's ownership of shares in a media company. Legislators are not allowed to own media shares.

The station has not broadcast since 2007, and Pita has said the shares were inherited from his father.

In parliament Thursday, he defended himself again, telling lawmakers: "I am fully qualified."

- 'Anything is possible' -

But it was clear the allegations would colour the vote.

"The parliament cannot accept Pita's name for consideration because he is prohibited to become a minister," conservative senator Praphan Koonmee told parliament, referencing the EC decision.

No other parties have announced alternative candidates.

If Pita loses the first vote, the house speaker will table session after session until a prime minister emerges -- raising the spectre of weeks of deadlock and economic uncertainty.

Prayut -- whose United Thai Nation party finished a dismal fifth in the election -- has announced his retirement from politics but will remain until a new prime minister emerges.

May's election was the first since pro-democracy demonstrations swept Bangkok in 2020, when tens of thousands of people made unprecedented calls to reform the royal defamation laws.

Pita's MFP was the only party that campaigned on tackling the issue, and that too has landed it in trouble.

On Wednesday, the Constitutional Court agreed to hear a case alleging that the promise amounts to attempting to "overthrow" the constitutional monarchy. The party has two weeks to present its defence.

Napisa Waitoolkiat, a political analyst with Naresuan University, told AFP that it appeared less and less likely that Pita would become the premier.

But she added: "Anything is possible in Thailand."

V.Mitchell--SFF