San Francisco Frontiers - Latin America's right-wing swing looms large over nature summit

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a leftist who has vowed to protect the Amazon, is facing off with conservative Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a runoff vote on Sunday.

"We hope that Brazil is still on the right side of the game," Camila Jardim, a political expert at Greenpeace Brazil, told AFP.

Latin America has had "some of the major champion voices (on biodiversity and climate change) in the region. It could be the case that we don't have these champions anymore," Jardim said.

The right-wing administrations that have taken over have prioritised the exploitation of natural resources to develop their economies over policies to protect the environment and curb climate change.

- Political 'disaster' -

Argentina elected climate-sceptic libertarian Javier Milei as president in 2023.

Chile's far-right president, Jose Antonio Kast, halted dozens of environmental protection decrees after taking office in March this year.

Colombia was the latest Latin American country to veer to the right in June, electing far-right politician Abelardo de la Espriella, who supports fracking.

Just two months earlier, the country had hosted an international conference aimed at moving the world away from fossil fuels. Colombia also organised the previous United Nations biodiversity summit, COP16, in 2024.

Juliette Landry, a researcher at French sustainable development think tank IDDRI, recalled that before the recent political "disaster", Latin American and Caribbean countries were "very ambitious" participants that sought compromises at the 2022 biodiversity summit.

Nearly 200 nations joined a historic call at that summit to halt and reverse the destruction of nature by 2030, but governments have been slow to act on these pledges.

Countries are under pressure to salvage the landmark pact at COP17 in Armenia's capital Yerevan, which started this week and runs until October 30.

Colombian deputy environment minister David Olarte Amaya, who is attending the summit, said the concerns about his country were exaggerated.

"You can see today that there is a participant from (the) government of Colombia," Olarte Amaya said of himself when asked by AFP if the new administration would continue the efforts of the previous government.

Asked whether De la Espriella's administration would also pursue efforts to phase out fossil fuels despite the president's support for fracking, the minister said yes but added that "reality" must be taken into account.

Armenian Environment Minister Hambardzum Matevosyan, who is presiding over the talks, worked with both the previous and current Colombian governments.

"I must say, on both sides, I have the same impression that I worked with the Colombian country, not different governments," Matevosyan told AFP.

- 'Bolsonaro 2.0' -

All eyes are now turning to Brazil, where Bolsonaro is a narrow favourite to win after edging Lula in the first round.

"It's especially what happens after COP17 that will be decisive," Landry said.

"The direction of Brazilian environmental policy carries a lot of weight in international negotiations," a French diplomat told AFP on condition of anonymity, highlighting Brazil's role in coalitions among developing nations.

Bolsonaro is the son of Lula's predecessor, former president Jair Bolsonaro, who was in power from 2019 to 2022 -- a period marked by record levels of deforestation in the Amazon.

Under Lula, Amazon deforestation has fallen sharply, reaching its lowest level in nearly 40 years in the period from August 2025 to July 2026.

The younger Bolsonaro has talked against the "radical environmental agenda" and vowed to run a "Bolsonaro 2.0" presidency.

At the same time, Flavio Bolsonaro has proposed treating the environment as a "strategic asset", including a pledge to end illegal deforestation by 2029.

That point harks back to a similar, unfulfilled promise by his father.

"I am afraid because the far-right government, if it wins, will not see the Indigenous territories as a protected place ... but a place to open and to explore," Marinete Tukano, general coordinator of the Union of Indigenous Women of the Brazilian Amazon (UMIAB), told AFP in Yerevan.

S.Jackson--SFF