San Francisco Frontiers - Vote count begins in Alberta secession referedum, testing Canada unity

Prime Minister Mark Carney has in recent days argued Alberta's vote is being held "at the worst possible time," urging Canadians to rally together to confront US President Donald Trump's trade war and annexation threats.

Polls indicated less than a quarter of people in the western province want independence, but separatist leader Mitch Sylvestre told AFP on Monday he remained optimistic.

"We're hoping to win," said Sylvestre, who heads the Alberta Prosperity Project, at a restaurant in the provincial capital Edmonton where his side was watching the returns.

Most polling stations will close at 8:00 pm (0200 GMT Tuesday) but more than 100 will close late due to delayed openings, Alberta's elections authority said.

Elections Alberta said 1.4 million of the 3.1 million eligible voters cast advance ballots. Those ballots were being counted starting at 5:00 pm.

Results may not come until Tuesday's early hours, Elections Alberta said.

David Gallagher, who voted earlier on a chilly Edmonton morning, told AFP an independent Alberta was a "silly idea."

"I want to stamp it down and stop it," the 58-year-old said.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, a conservative, has said she is voting against independence but called the referendum to settle an issue that has divided the province.

If a majority votes to separate, she has pledged to move forward with a binding referendum.

If the federalists win, Smith said the secession question should be considered closed.

- Foreign influence? -

Alberta has the world's fourth-largest proven oil reserves, and much of the separatist momentum has been driven by anger over oil industry management.

Smith has blamed Carney's predecessor Justin Trudeau for igniting the separatist fire, accusing him of trying to crush oil production to advance his pro-climate agenda.

Alberta's independence push has also drawn sustained interest from Trump allies.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called Alberta a "natural partner" for the United States. Elon Musk, the world's richest person and a top Trump supporter, posted on X this month that Alberta "should separate."

Separatist leaders have also held meetings at the US State Department and with Republican political operatives.

- 'Huge uncertainty' -

Carney, who grew up in Alberta, has worked to improve relations between the province and Ottawa since taking office last year.

He has partnered with Smith on advancing a new pipeline to export more Alberta bitumen overseas, a project considered a nonstarter during Trudeau's tenure.

But he has also warned Albertans that even a nonbinding vote on independence would be a "dangerous bluff," drawing on his experience during Brexit, when he was the Bank of England's governor.

He said the "huge uncertainty" that followed the Brexit vote hurt the British economy, cautioning Alberta over unintended economic consequences.

Sylvestre said Carney "threatened" the province in the closing days of the campaign.

Carney's message was "voting against Canada is dangerous," Sylvestre said. "I think that's very, very unreasonable."

Haley Erdegard, a 44-year-old who voted in Edmonton, voiced discomfort with the idea advanced by some separatists that Alberta is forced to share too much of its oil revenue with the rest of Canada.

"The whole point of privilege is that if you have more than somebody else, you're supposed to share," she told AFP.

"I think we probably need to put some more work towards cooperation before making rash decisions about trying to start our own country."

G.Collins--SFF