San Francisco Frontiers - Farnborough to survey the state of Boeing's comeback

The airshow comes as the industry's expectations about Boeing are beginning to reset after a rocky period defined by safety crises, criminal probes and leadership shakeups.

US regulators gave approval in recent months to boost production of its top-selling planes -- the 737 MAX and 787 Dreamliner -- and Boeing is nearing final certification of two new MAX aircraft and the much-delayed widebody 777X.

Boeing executives said pathway is "clear" to final certification on the three aircraft and "on track" for its timeline, during a press tour last week. Boeing has said it will garner 2026 US certification for the MAX 7 and MAX 10, and deliveries of the 777X will commence in 2027.

Boeing, which reported annual losses between 2018 and 2024, expects positive cash flow in the second half of 2026. On Tuesday, Boeing announced that it delivered 314 commercial planes in the first half of 2026, the most since 2018.

But the expected uptick in commercial deliveries from newly certified aircraft is central to the company's long-term target of achieving $10 billion in annual free cash flow.

Questions about the new jets loom over Boeing at Farnborough.

"At Boeing, customers will be looking for greater certainty around certification and delivery dates for the 737 MAX 7, MAX 10, 777-9 and 777-8F," said a note from consultancy Cirium.

While airlines have been reassured the 737 MAX 7 and 737 MAX 10 will soon be in their fleets, questions linger about the 777X, said longtime aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia, who will attend Farnborough.

"People are going to want clarity on the 777X and there isn't a lot of clarity," said Aboulafia. "It's become a bit of a 'show-me' story, I'm afraid."

- Tighter regulatory scrutiny -

Boeing officials deferred to the Federal Aviation Administration on the timing of final approval, but said certification testing on the 737 MAX 7, the smallest version of the aircraft, was 100 percent complete, while "deliverables" were 95 percent done.

"We're just in the last throes of getting it certified," said Chris Payne, vice president of the Boeing's 737 airplane development program.

For the 737 MAX 10, the largest version of the plane, flight tests were 98 percent complete while documentation of results and analysis is 30 percent complete.

The aviation giant's efforts on MAX 10 have included a revamped enhanced angle of attack (AOA) sensor after a defect contributed to fatal 737 MAX crashes in 2018 and 2019 that led to a lengthy grounding.

Capitol Hill hearings exposed weak government oversight of Boeing as a factor in the MAX crashes, leading to 2020 legislation requiring them to install new AOA sensors on the entire fleet of over 2,300 MAX planes within two years.

Boeing has completed 50 percent of planned certification flight testing for the 777-9, with one test plane deployed to Canada to trial ice protection systems while another was sent to Arizona to test exposure to high radiated fields like radar.

Boeing prepares flight test data, safety analysis and other documents for regulators, said Terry Beezhold, general manager for the 777-9 Program.

Boeing launched the 777X program at the 2013 Dubai Airshow, originally targeting 2020 for deliveries.

Some delays were due to shifts under the 2020 legislation that the FAA had to set up for the first time, said Boeing senior vice president Mike Sinnett.

Cirium and Aboulafia also flagged supply chain issues on everything from engines and spare parts to seats for both Boeing and rival Airbus.

"A lot of their internal problems are behind them," Aboulafia said of Boeing. "But they will soon be bumping against the external problems that are bedeviling the industry."

Ihssane Mounir, senior vice president for global supply chain, said Boeing has confidence in availability from tier-one suppliers but less visibility into others.

The supply chain in general is more stable, said Mounir, before adding, "it's getting more difficult as well, because you've got the rates that are going up, so the volumes are going up, so the problems are going to come."

I.Wright--SFF