San Francisco Frontiers - Suspense surrounds Swiss anti-immigration vote

Put forward by the hard-right Swiss People's Party (SVP), the proposal would require drastic cuts to immigration that critics warn risk crippling swathes of the economy and Switzerland's relations with the European Union, its main trading partner.

The "No to a Switzerland with 10 million!" initiative wants the wealthy Alpine nation's population -- currently 9.1 million -- capped below 10 million until 2050.

In a country where foreigners make up over a quarter of the population, the proposal, if accepted, would slam the brakes on immigration.

The SVP insists this is needed, blaming "mass immigration" for a whole host of problems, from housing shortages to rising rents to overcrowded trains and traffic jams.

"Nine out of 10 apartments being built for immigrants," one campaign poster reads, while another one urges voters to "Protect Switzerland".

"Switzerland is a small country that cannot be expanded," SVP parliamentarian Yvan Pahud told AFP.

We "do not want to welcome all of Europe".

- 'Close' vote expected -

The initiative, put forward under Switzerland's direct democracy system, faces broad opposition across the government, parliament and multiple sectors of the economy.

But opinion polls suggest the vote could be tight.

The latest polls show opposition to the initiative gaining ground, with the last gfs.bern survey last week showing the "No" camp advancing to 52 percent.

However, pollsters highlight that other polls showing a similar trend were conducted before a knife-wielding Turkish-Swiss man injured three people near Zurich on May 28, in what authorities have labelled a "terrorist" attack.

That could "mobilise some voters", Martina Mousson, gfs.bern project manager, told AFP, predicting a "close" result.

Opponents have dubbed the proposal a "chaos initiative", warning of potentially disastrous consequences.

The entire business community is "fiercely opposed", Cristina Gaggini of the Swiss Enterprise Federation told AFP, warning of exacerbated labour shortages and threats to EU trade relations.

Warnings have also come from Switzerland's healthcare sector, where foreigners account for nearly half of all doctors, that care would suffer and "risk of mortality" could rise if the initiative passes.

- EU trade at risk -

Under the proposal from the SVP, Switzerland's biggest party, the country would need to begin reining in immigration as soon as its population surpasses 9.5 million, which could happen in about four years.

And if the population still hits 10 million before 2050, the country would be required to withdraw from an agreement with the EU allowing the free movement of people.

Since that agreement was introduced in 2002, the Swiss population has grown by around 1.7 million.

But a so-called guillotine clause means that discontinuing that agreement would terminate other pacts with Brussels that are key to Switzerland's trade and market access.

"The stakes are very high," Swiss Justice Minister Beat Jans told the Tribune de Geneve newspaper, warning that the vote could provoke the equivalent of a Swiss "Brexit".

If it passes, "we would find ourselves isolated", he said.

One campaign poster opposing the initiative features a black-and-white picture of US President Donald Trump, with his Russian and Chinese counterparts in the shadows, asking: "Is this the right time to break with Europe?"

- 'Fed up' -

Other critics charge the proposal is xenophobic.

"To say that Switzerland is full, when we have used foreigners to build our roads, our tunnels, our buildings, and to work in our hospitals, is completely hypocritical," Socialist parliamentarian Brenda Tuosto told AFP.

Olivier Agassis, a winegrower and local SVP representative, meanwhile said the goal of the proposed reform was "not to rid Switzerland of its foreign population".

"We're not asking anyone to leave, we're not racist," he said, but insisted the Swiss were "fed up".

He was among a number of farmers who have vocally supported the initiative.

Marlene Perroud, a 34-year-old dairy farmer, told AFP the SVP proposal was needed to protect Swiss farmland from rampant development.

"We're heading towards a situation where we can no longer feed our population, which is tragic," she warned.

Q.Taylor--SFF