San Francisco Frontiers - Paramount's CinemaCon charm offensive gets lukewarm reception

A glitzy promotional film narrated by Tom Cruise ended with the world's most bankable movie star sitting atop the company's water tower, gazing over Hollywood.

"The future is Paramount, and the future looks pretty great from here," said Cruise.

The firm's chief executive David Ellison, attuned to fears that the $111 billion offer for a rival studio would result in cuts, bounded onto the stage at Caesars Palace to insist it would not crimp production.

"I came here today... to look every single one of you in the eye and give you my word. Once we combine with Warner Brothers, we're going to make a minimum of 30 films annually," he told the audience, pledging 45-day theatrical windows before any film is available to stream.

"Long live the movies!"

The response from theater owners was lukewarm, and maybe for good reason: they've been here before.

"Disney said a lot of similar things when they were acquiring 20th Century Fox. They committed to maintaining the level of output," Matthew Hoopfer of Michigan-based cinema chain Studio C told AFP.

"20th Century Fox was a major studio; they had 10, 12 movies a year. I think in the Disney showcase (this year) between 20th Century and Searchlight, there were five or six movies."

Cinema United, the umbrella group that organizes CinemaCon, has declared itself skeptical about the takeover.

"While recent pledges attempt to address the threats of consolidation to our industry, they are not yet sufficient in addressing our concerns," organization president Michael O'Leary told AFP.

"We remain open to tangible commitments that will ensure a vibrant global theatrical exhibition industry for years to come."

Cinema owners are not the only ones who are worried.

An open letter signed by thousands of Hollywood luminaries -- from acting heavyweights Jane Fonda and Joaquin Phoenix to directors J. J. Abrams and Denis Villeneuve -- opposed the consolidation and fretted it would mean "fewer jobs... higher costs, and less choice for audiences."

- Hail Mary -

For cinema owners, much depends on what happens with Warner Bros. and whether Paramount Skydance can keep its promise to maintain a steady stream of films.

A decade ago, annual spending at the North American box office frequently topped $11 billion.

But the Covid-19 pandemic and the explosive growth of streaming put a hole in that, with yearly revenues drooping to less than $9 billion.

Signs are good, however, for 2026.

A strong first quarter, aided by crowd-pleasers like "Project Hail Mary" and "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie," has some industry-watchers predicting this year could be one of the best in a while.

In the halls of CinemaCon -- where optimism regarding the box office rebound was palpable -- theater owners said the only guaranteed balm was good content, and lots of it.

Chance Crusenberry, owner of a historical drive-in theater in Virginia, said the new uber studio would have to keep its pledge to pump out movies.

"If they want to be successful and they want us to be successful and the movie theaters to stay open, they have to follow through," he said.

The bidding war for Warner Bros., which industry watchers had long held to be flailing a little, ironically emerged as the studio was having a banner year.

"One Battle After Another" scooped up the Best Picture Oscar, beating out in-house rival "Sinners," with both films also scoring at the box office.

But recent successes are only part of the value proposition: the Warner Bros. library is deep, and includes money-spinners like "Harry Potter" and "The Lord of the Rings."

To get its hands on that library, Paramount Skydance had to fend off a rival bid from cash-rich Netflix, with reports suggesting it leaned heavily on financing.

A heavy debt load might muddy the waters, said Bryan Sieve, president of Odyssey Cinemas in South Dakota.

"It's going to be an awful big challenge to service that amount and still be able to maintain the capital requirements necessary to have such an aggressive 30-film slate," he told AFP.

While a vein of skepticism ran through many of the theater owners AFP spoke to in Las Vegas, they were united in one thing: if the merger goes ahead, they need it to succeed.

"We hope that they can do it," said Sieve.

K.Torres--SFF