San Francisco Frontiers - Threat of grounded planes nears as jet fuel supplies dwindle

The risk of shortages is greatest in Asia, and to a lesser extent Europe, as they both rely on oil from the Gulf and its refineries for their supplies.

"The situation can, within the next three, four weeks, become systemic," Rystad Energy economist Claudio Galimberti said on US financial news channel CNBC on Tuesday about jet fuel shortages.

"So you can have severe cuts of flights in Europe, already starting in May and June," he warned.

Galimberti said flights had already been cancelled due to fuel shortages, but the European Commission on the same day said there was no lack of fuel as yet.

"There is no evidence for fuel shortages in the European Union at present," said spokeswoman Anna-Kaisa Itkonen.

However she acknowledged that "supply issues could occur in the near future in particular for jet fuels."

- May or June shortages -

Last week the Airports Council International Europe wrote to the European Commission saying shortages of jet fuel could begin in three weeks -- at the beginning of May, if tankers don't begin sailing through the Strait of Hormuz before then.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz -- through which a fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies transited before the war -- has been almost completely blocked since the United States and Israel began bombing Iran on February 28.

The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, also warned that Europe could face shortages of jet fuel "maybe beginning of May".

In its latest monthly report on the oil market, released on Tuesday, the IEA advanced a later date.

"If the global jet fuel market tightens further and European markets are unable to secure more than 50 percent of their lost Middle East volumes, then stocks will hit the crucial 23-day level in June," it warned.

It is hard to make sweeping generalisations about the situation.

Japan is heavily dependant upon imports but has built up considerable reserves.

The situation also varies considerably with Europe.

Austria, Bulgaria and Poland have comfortable stocks. For Britain, Iceland and the Netherlands it is the opposite. France is somewhere in the middle.

And the impact won't be the same for all airports and airlines.

"Smaller, inland located, airports will be in a weaker position than the main hubs," ING Bank economist Rico Luman told AFP.

"It won't be a matter of full halt, but part cancellation at some airlines and airports," he added.

- 'Serious supply issues' -

Airlines have little visibility to plan their flight schedules.

Airlines for Europe (A4E), a trade association that includes Air France-KLM, Lufthansa and Ryanair, has been urging the European Union to begin providing real time information on jet fuel stocks at airports.

The data would have to come from fuel suppliers, who are not enthusiastic about turning over sensitive commercial data to their major clients.

TotalEnergies has warned that if oil supplies from the Gulf remain blocked in June it won't be able to supply all of its customers.

"If this war and this blockade last more than three months, we'll begin to face some serious supply issues in some products like jet fuel," the company's chief executive Patrick Pouyanne said on Monday.

Airlines for Europe (A4E) has also suggested that the European Commission exceptionally authorise the import of US jet fuel, which is produced to a slightly different standard than in the rest of the world.

Regulary, political and logisitical issues mean there is little chance this could happen in the near future.

I.Wright--SFF