San Francisco Frontiers - Geneva watch fair set to show war's effect on luxury sector

The Watches and Wonders salon -- the industry's biggest annual event -- sees 65 major watch brands, including Rolex, Patek Philippe, Cartier and Bulgari, display their latest creations until April 20.

Despite uncertainties surrounding travel from the Middle East and Asia, organisers are expecting around 60,000 visitors during the week, compared to 55,000 last year.

"The war is going to be a big talking point," said Jon Cox, an industry analyst with Kepler Cheuvreux financial services.

Before the conflict erupted on February 28 with the first US and Israeli strikes on Iran, Cox was forecasting a rebound in Swiss watch exports in 2026, expecting "mid-single-digit growth" of around five percent, he told AFP.

But the uncertainties triggered by the conflict are now likely to leave the Swiss watch industry facing "weak growth" in exports, he said.

Jean-Philippe Bertschy, an analyst at Swiss investment managers Vontobel, was forecasting four-percent growth at the start of the year, but is now leaning "more towards stagnation", adding that he would revise his estimates for 2026 after gauging the mood at Watches and Wonders.

The Middle East accounts for just under 10 percent of the watch market.

That "is not insignificant", Bertschy told AFP, especially since the region has witnessed "strong growth in recent years", with particular enthusiasm for complex watches at the top end of the industry.

But the war's impact on consumer spending and tourism remains unclear.

It is "extremely difficult" to make forecasts in the current climate, Bertschy said, adding that the watch fair was a way to "take the temperature" of the sector.

- Attracting younger buyers -

With the demise of the Baselworld salon following the Covid-19 pandemic, Watches and Wonders in Geneva has established itself as the pinnacle showcase for watchmaking in Switzerland.

Within less than five years, the number of exhibitors has almost doubled, organisers said, with the 2026 edition welcoming 11 new brands, including Audemars Piguet, one of the most sought-after among collectors.

Once reserved exclusively for industry professionals, the Geneva salon has gradually opened its doors to the public, turning into a platform for showcasing watchmaking expertise.

While the first four days are for the industry only, the weekend and Monday are open to the public, with organisers seeking to seduce a new generation of younger buyers.

Organisers noted that a quarter of tickets last year were sold to under-25s.

Watchmaking is Switzerland's third-largest export sector, after pharmaceuticals and industry.

In 2025, the sector's workforce in Switzerland shrank for the first time since the Covid crisis, falling by 1.3 percent to 64,807 people, according to the Swiss Watch Industry Employers' Association.

The sector had suffered a blow during the pandemic, but bounced back quickly afterwards, breaking records for three consecutive years thanks to so-called "revenge purchases", with some consumers using the savings made during lockdowns to stock up on luxury watches.

But with a drop in demand in China, followed by the US tariffs blitz, the last two years have been tough for the sector.

Swiss watch exports first fell by 2.8 percent in 2024 and then by 1.7 percent in 2025, to 25.6 billion Swiss francs ($32.5 billion).

S.Hall--SFF