San Francisco Frontiers - Russian tanker set to deliver oil to crisis-hit Cuba

The Anatoly Kolodkin, a tanker under US sanctions, was on its way to the port of Matanzas, east of Havana, with 730,000 barrels of crude.

US President Donald Trump's decision to let Russia deliver the oil avoids a confrontation with Moscow and provides temporary relief to a country that has endured blackouts, fuel rationing and dwindling public transportation.

"We'll welcome it with open arms. You have no idea how badly we need that oil," said Rosa Perez, a 74-year-old retiree whose home in Matanzas had lost power again.

"Let's see if things improve for us, even just a little... I can't take it anymore," she told AFP, voicing hope that more shipments will follow.

Trump said Sunday that he did not object to Russia or others sending oil to the island because Cubans "have to survive."

The White House denied however that there was any change to US sanctions policy.

"We allowed this ship to reach Cuba in order to provide humanitarian needs to the Cuban people. These decisions are being made on a case-by-case basis," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said.

- Driving Cuba 'to the brink' -

Cuba was cut off from oil supplies in January after US forces ousted its main regional ally, Venezuela's socialist leader Nicolas Maduro, and Trump threatened tariffs on countries that send crude to the country.

The US president has mused about "taking" the communist-ruled island, though Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel confirmed in March that Cuban and US officials had held talks.

Ricardo Herrero, executive director of the Cuba Study Group, a nonpartisan policy group in Washington, said the aim of restricting oil was to force Havana "to make real concessions at the negotiating table."

"The strategy here is to drive the system to the brink," Herrero told AFP. "But it's not to precipitate a full-blown societal or humanitarian collapse."

"It's all consistent with idea that the US holds all the cards and they'll decide when to hold, when to fold and when they go all in," he said.

- Two weeks of diesel -

Cubans have endured seven nationwide blackouts since 2024, including two in March, and fuel prices have soared.

The blackouts as well as persistent shortages of food and medicine have fueled public frustration and some rare protests.

Analysts said the Russian oil would buy the Cuban economy only a few weeks.

Jorge Pinon, an expert on Cuba's energy sector at the University of Texas at Austin, said the more urgent need is diesel, which could be used for backup power generators or for transportation systems to keep the economy running.

It would take a month to refine the oil and deliver the diesel, which would be enough to cover demand for about two weeks, he said.

Herrero said the shipment was just "another donation" by Cuba's Russian ally, but he doubted that Moscow wanted to subsidize the Cuban economy in the long term.

"This is not going to help the economy recover," he said. "This is just humanitarian aid."

F.Edwards--SFF