San Francisco Frontiers - EU summit fails to rally Orban behind stalled Ukraine loan

Moscow's closest partner in the bloc, the nationalist prime minister has long resisted helping Kyiv to repel Russia's invasion, stalling EU aid and repeated rounds of sanctions.

This time around, Orban is holding up a 90-billion-euro ($104 billion) loan as leverage in a feud over damage to a pipeline running through Ukraine -- which has choked the flow of Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia.

"The Hungarian position is very simple. We are ready to support Ukraine when we get our oil, which is blocked by them," Orban said on arrival at the summit, which Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky addressed by videolink.

Orban had made it clear he planned to play hardball, as he leans into anti-EU and anti-Ukrainian narratives ahead of close-fought national elections on April 12 -- to the exasperation of fellow EU leaders.

And despite concerted pressure from his counterparts in Brussels, he refused to budge.

"No movement from Orban," summed up an EU diplomat after the Ukraine talks concluded. "We all know it's linked to the elections -- we are going to have to be creative."

The EU's top diplomat Kaja Kallas warned earlier it was "really, really time" to show support by unlocking funding for Ukraine for this year and the next -- which Hungary's leader signed up to in December along with the rest of the bloc.

But only 25 of the bloc's 27 leaders endorsed Thursday summit conclusions reaffirming their intent to begin disbursing the funds next month, with diplomats confirming the holdouts were Budapest and Bratislava.

Leaders agreed to revisit the matter, which requires unanimity, at their next meeting planned in late April.

- Election 'weapon' -

At the root of the standoff is a weeks-long dispute in which landlocked Hungary and Slovakia accuse Ukraine of stalling on pipeline repairs -- while Zelensky has called it "blackmail" to link the issue to support for Kyiv's war effort.

The European Commission moved this week to unblock the situation by sending a team to help restore oil transit, but Orban dismissed the scheme as a "fairy tale".

"We are waiting for the oil," Orban told reporters -- calling the matter "existential" for Hungary.

Many of his counterparts see the block as squarely motivated by national politics.

"He's using Ukraine as a weapon in his election campaign, and it's not good. We had a deal," Finland's Prime Minister Petteri Orpo told reporters in Brussels.

Belgium's Bart de Wever likewise said Orban's veto seemed to be "part of his election campaign," calling his U-turn "unacceptable".

- Shortfall -

It's a well worn routine in Brussels, where Orban has held up countless decisions on Ukraine, and solutions have ultimately been found -- in one famous case having him leave the room while the bloc approved the start of membership talks with Kyiv.

But this time around, it remains unclear when he might blink.

"He doesn't sound like he's ready to be convinced," said a second EU diplomat after the talks.

Complicating matters, leaders have been wary of offering Orban -- who is trailing main rival Peter Magyar in election polls -- a chance to bolster his image as a maverick on the EU stage by publicly ganging up on him.

Facing a budget shortfall four years into the war, Kyiv is estimated to need an influx of funds in early May -- implying a decision to unlock the EU loan by mid-April.

The failure to break the deadlock may push the issue back until after the Hungarian vote, whatever its outcome.

Can Ukraine hold out until then? Unclear, say EU diplomats.

B.Johnson--SFF