San Francisco Frontiers - Oscars: the 10 nominees for best picture

Pundits predict either "Sinners" or "One Battle After Another" will triumph, but could the likes of "Hamnet" or "The Secret Agent" spring a surprise?

Here are the 10 nominees for best picture at the 98th Academy Awards on Sunday:

- 'Bugonia' -

The latest pitch-black, absurdist offering from the director of "Poor Things" and "The Favourite," Yorgos Lanthimos' "Bugonia" dives headfirst into the untethered world of conspiracy theorists.

Jesse Plemons' Teddy is convinced that Emma Stone's big pharma CEO Michelle is really an evil alien, and coerces his guileless cousin into kidnapping her to prove his case and save the planet.

Could he possibly be right? And why are we rooting for him?

Lanthimos keeps us guessing until the jaw-dropping end. There will be no such suspense at the Oscars though, as "Bugonia" proved a little too much for the tastes of many Academy voters.

- 'F1: The Movie' -

The Academy likes to nominate one or two lavish blockbusters each year, rewarding movies that spend big and hire the industry's best craftsmen to create that only-in-Hollywood magic.

This year, "F1: The Movie" -- from the director behind "Top Gun: Maverick" -- pipped "Avatar: Fire and Ash" to that best picture slot.

Starring Brad Pitt as a racing driver who just won't quit, this is old-school filmmaking wrapped up in cutting-edge technology -- and a hefty dose of Formula One product placement.

Its nomination was a surprise, and "F1" -- which grossed $630 million at the box office worldwide -- is not expected to make the top podium.

- 'Frankenstein' -

Oscars voters love Guillermo del Toro, showering him with statuettes for "The Shape of Water" and his animated "Pinocchio." "Frankenstein" was the Mexican auteur's decades-in-the-making passion project.

So it was little surprise the stately horror flick earned a pile of nominations, even with the lukewarm reviews it drew following its splashy Venice festival premiere last fall.

The film's masterful costumes, makeup and sets are almost certain to win, but best picture looks like a stretch.

- 'Hamnet'

If there is a genuine dark horse beyond the two runaway favorites, it is surely "Hamnet."

Based on a novel imagining the grim, plague-ravaged lives of William Shakespeare and his wife, "Hamnet" ticks a lot of boxes -- sumptuously shot, emotionally devastating filmmaking based on classy literary IP, and from an Academy Award-winning director in Chloe Zhao ("Nomadland").

It took the top prize at the influential Toronto film festival.

But decades after "Shakespeare in Love" stunningly took best picture, there seems little chance that the Bard will crash the party this time around.

- 'Marty Supreme' -

The semi-fictional tale of an international ping-pong champion, "Marty Supreme" rests entirely on the performance of Timothee Chalamet as its cocky protagonist.

Its Oscars chances reflect that.

Chalamet still has a strong shot at best actor, despite his well-documented recent controversies, but the film is unlikely to be crowned champion.

- 'One Battle After Another' -

Paul Thomas Anderson's madcap thriller about a former revolutionary emerging from a decades-long drug and booze-addled haze to save his daughter has picked up one prize after another this season, making it the wire-to-wire frontrunner.

Starring Leonardo DiCaprio, it has already been named the year's best movie by Hollywood's producers and directors guilds, as well as top critics' organizations and Britain's BAFTAs.

Tackling timely topics from immigration raids to white supremacists, and packing an A-list cast including Sean Penn and Benicio Del Toro, it is clearly the film to beat.

- 'Sentimental Value' -

Danish-Norwegian director Joachim Trier came onto the Academy's radar with his stunning dark romantic drama "The Worst Person in the World."

He returned with the same lead actress, Renate Reinsve, added a dose of Hollywood glamour with the casting of Elle Fanning, and wowed Oscars voters again to earn his first best picture nod.

A meta-movie about filmmakers and their families, "Sentimental Value" is a frontrunner for best international film, but is likely too introspective for the top prize.

- 'Sinners' -

With its wild blend of bloodthirsty vampires and bigots, blues music and Black folklore, "Sinners" has surged late in the Oscars race, and has a very strong chance of winning best picture.

Ryan Coogler's crowd-pleasing and critically acclaimed vampire horror and race allegory surpassed all expectations following its relatively low-key release last April, earning $370 million at the global box office.

Momentum has built to a fever pitch with key wins from the Hollywood actors' guild this month, including for star Michael B. Jordan, who plays gangster twins returning home to a supernatural 1930s Deep South.

It is rare for a horror movie to win big at this Oscars -- but can anything stop this audacious, genre-defying blockbuster now?

- 'The Secret Agent' -

If "The Secret Agent" wins best international film Sunday, it would represent back-to-back wins for ever-rising cinema powerhouse Brazil.

But could it go a step further and claim best picture?

Probably not, but this chaotic thriller set against the backdrop of the country's military dictatorship, which packs its own supernatural folkloric twist, is undoubtedly timely and has its ardent supporters.

- 'Train Dreams' -

A historically fascinating glimpse into the settling of the US Pacific Northwest, anchored on a tragic human story, "Train Dreams" is a beautifully composed slice of indie filmmaking.

It earned a massive boost when it was picked up in January 2025 at the Sundance festival by Netflix, which propelled it into the awards conversation with a typically smart and lavish campaign.

A nomination is already a win for "Train Dreams," arguably the smallest film on the list.

J.Scott--SFF