San Francisco Frontiers - China prioritises energy and diplomacy over Iran support

The war in the Middle East has sparked global fears of an energy supply crunch, with traffic in the vital Strait of Hormuz blocked.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Wednesday they had "complete control" of the waterway as it kept up its missile and drone barrages across the Gulf.

China, a net importer of oil, is one of several major Asian economies that depend on the narrow strait for energy.

However, experts say strategic stockpiles will help Beijing endure short-term disruptions, allowing it to pursue other diplomatic priorities.

Looming ahead is a high-stakes summit in China between President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump, which the White House says will begin on March 31.

"The Iran crisis is unlikely to derail the Trump-Xi summit unless the United States launches a sweeping crackdown on Iran-China (oil) flows," Dan Wang, China Director for the Eurasia Group, told AFP.

"Beijing views Iran as a strategic partner rather than a military ally," said Wang.

"China also values its relationship with other Gulf states, making direct military support beyond rhetoric highly unlikely," he added.

- Key 'buffer' -

Beijing has ramped up its diplomatic presence in the Middle East in recent years, notably brokering a 2023 deal between longtime rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore ties.

Tehran was later added as a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, a geopolitical and economic bloc anchored by Beijing and Moscow.

China has also grown heavily reliant on the region for powering its huge economy.

Its own crude production accounts for only about 30 percent of domestic demand, according to analytics firm Kpler, with the gap covered by vast shipments of foreign oil.

The Middle East was the source of 57 percent of China's direct seaborne crude imports in 2025 -- 5.9 million barrels per day (mbd) -- Kpler said.

Of those, 1.4 mbd came from Iran.

Although China depends on imports to meet energy demand, it has also carefully prepared for unexpected disruptions.

"Thanks to years of sustained stockpiling, China now holds roughly (1.2 billion barrels) of onshore crude inventories," Kpler analyst Muyu Xu wrote.

Those reserves are "equivalent to about 115 days of its seaborne crude imports", Xu said.

"The sheer scale of China's overall crude stockpiles provides a meaningful buffer, enabling both the country and its refiners to comfortably weather short-term supply disruptions from the Middle East and the resulting price spikes."

- 'Strong' condemnation -

Beijing said on Sunday it "firmly opposes and strongly condemns" the US-Israeli strikes that killed Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

"The most urgent task is an immediate cessation of military operations and preventing a spread and spillover of conflict," foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning told a news conference this week.

She noted that one Chinese citizen was killed in Tehran as a result of the conflict.

However, analysts say that energy needs and a reluctance to be drawn into a conflict with Washington will prevent Beijing from converting strong rhetoric into concrete action.

The fact that around half of its crude imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz "gives China a vested interest in keeping energy flowing in the region", wrote Gareth Leather and Mark Williams of Capital Economics in a report.

"That is one reason to think that China may not step up support to help Iran, a long-standing geopolitical ally, sustain its response to the US and Israeli attacks in the way it did for Russia after the invasion of Ukraine," they wrote.

"Another is that China would be wary of being seen to facilitate attacks on the United States."

Kpler's Xu said that "Russia is likely to emerge as a beneficiary of the war" if oil flows from the region remain blocked.

"Russian barrels (are) one of the most immediately available alternatives for India and China to replace disrupted Middle Eastern supplies," Xu said.

L.Lopez--SFF