San Francisco Frontiers - Economy not Russia is big fear on Finland's closed frontier

Helsinki had accused Moscow of "hybrid warfare" in orchestrating a surge of 1,300 migrants across the border -- a charge the Kremlin denied.

But it was more the economic rather than the military fallout that worried locals AFP talked to in the border region of North Karelia, once a four-hour drive from St Petersburg, President Vladimir Putin's hometown.

At its peak, there were almost two million border crossings a year at Niirala, which is part of the Tohmajarvi municipality, said local authority chief Mikko Lopponen.

"And now there are none. This had an immediate impact on businesses. Companies have found themselves in a very difficult position."

Tohmajarvi "had changed a lot", the 42-year-old said, glancing out the window at a quiet street that used to buzz with transit traffic and tourists.

Hopes to install wind turbines were also dashed "because they interfere with radar and border surveillance systems".

While Lopponen complained there had not been enough government support, the reason for closing the 1,340-kilometre (830-mile) border was "well understood" given the region's history.

Most of Finnish Karelia was grabbed by Joseph Stalin's forces in 1940 after the bloody Winter War, when Finland put up stiff resistance to the Soviets despite overwhelming odds.

"We are used to having Russia just across the border," said Lopponen, who like almost every man and some women, is a military reservist until the age of 65.

- New border fence -

Only the sound of two Finnish guards' footsteps in the snow broke the silence as they patrolled a new border fence.

"The border is very peaceful at the moment, but we are aware the global situation is tense," said Ville Kuusela, a senior border guard.

Finland is building a 200-kilometre, 362-million-euro ($426 million) barrier fence with cameras and sensors in strategic areas to tackle the threat of weaponised migration.

But for now the guards mostly encounter moose, bears and some curious onlookers.

Finland abandoned decades of military non-alignment by joining NATO in April 2023, a year after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Defence Minister Antti Hakkanen told AFP military investment and preparedness had been ramped up in case the neighbours become "aggressive in the future".

Moscow is suspected of sabotaging undersea cables in the Baltic and it has expanded its military bases near Finland's eastern border.

"We have to now run fast to strengthen up our defence," Hakkanen said.

- Record unemployment -

In the sleepy streets of Tohmajarvi, a few elderly ladies arrived at the local market on their kicksleds.

Pilvi Paaskynen, who runs the K Market, remembered how Russian customers used to snap up instant coffee, tea and cheese while Finns crossed the border to buy petrol, cigarettes and alcohol that were cheaper in Russia.

Down the road at the Tavaratori store, with its signs in Finnish and Russian, "sales had halved", a worker said.

Finland had the highest unemployment rate in the EU at 10.2 percent in December, with that figure reaching 18.2 percent in Tohmajarvi, according to the Finnish statistical agency.

But the economic impact of sanctions against Russia and the closure of the border has been less severe than feared, according to Tomi Kristeri, an economist at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

"Regional pockets and certain sectors have been hit harder," such as tourism and machine tool manufacturing, he said.

Despite high unemployment, the border closure has raised fears of labour shortages in construction, catering and healthcare, where many Russians work.

In the regional capital Joensuu, vocational school principal Esa Karvinen had more than 2,000 applications from Russia in 2022. "Last year there were less than 200."

- Marooned Russians -

No one wants to live in Tohmajarvi, there are no jobs," said the 41-year-old motel owner Aleksander Kuznetsov, who like the rest of its Russian community, is now cut off from relatives on the other side of the frontier.

Before the border closed, his 14 rooms were booked "two to three days a week", he said. "This month I've only had eight customers."

Fellow Russian Anjelika Hovi, a 51-year-old nurse who is married to a Finn, said her eldest son had left to find a job, working for a time on the border fence.

Kuznetsov said he used to visit his wife and family an hour's drive away across the border in Sortavala "once a week".

But he hasn't seen them in 15 months, with his last trip home taking 27 hours via Narva in Estonia, where a crossing point remains open. It cost him several hundred euros.

"People don't need war, people need a good life, a normal life," he said.

"But I don't know how long I can hold on because money is running out. Maybe half a year, maybe a year."

K.Hernandez--SFF