San Francisco Frontiers - Dutch tech giant ASML posts bumper profits, eyes bright AI future

ASML is a critical cog in the global economy, as the semiconductors crafted with its tools power everything from smartphones to missiles.

After-tax profit for 2025 came in at 9.6 billion euros ($11.5 billion), compared with 7.6 billion euros for 2024.

"In the last months, many of our customers have shared a notably more positive assessment of the medium-term market situation, primarily based on more robust expectations of the sustainability of AI-related demand," CEO Christophe Fouquet said in a statement.

Fourth quarter net bookings, the figure traders track most closely, came in at 13.2 billion euros.

This compared with 5.4 billion euros in the third quarter of 2024 and is likely to move the market as investors watch for signs of future performance.

Total 2025 net sales were a record 32.7 billion euros. The firm had previously said it did not expect sales to be below the 28.3 billion euros banked last year.

ASML expects net sales in 2026 to be between 34 and 39 billion euros, it announced in new forecasts.

For the first quarter of this year, the firm predicted it would post between 8.2 billion euros and 8.9 billion euros in sales.

"We expect 2026 to be another growth year for ASML's business," said Fouquet.

- US-China tech war -

The tech giant is caught in the middle of a US-led effort to curb high-tech exports to China over fears they could be used to bolster the country's military.

Beijing has been infuriated by the export curbs, describing them as "technological terrorism."

In a case unrelated to ASML, the Dutch government briefly seized control of Nexperia, a Chinese-owned company that makes low-tech semiconductors.

That move sparked a major row between Beijing and the West that threatened to cripple car manufacturers that rely on Nexperia chips.

In late October, following trade talks between China's President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump, Beijing agreed to resume exports of Nexperia chips halted over the row.

ASML already warned when presenting third-quarter results that China sales would "decline significantly" in 2026 compared with "very strong business" in 2024 and 2025.

Longer-term, ASML believes that the rapidly expanding AI market will push up its annual sales to between 44 billion and 60 billion euros by 2030.

Turning to the fourth quarter, ASML sales came in at 9.7 billion euros. It had forecast between 9.2 billion and 9.8 billion euros.

Net profit for the fourth quarter was 2.8 billion euros, compared to the 2.1 billion euros booked in the third quarter of last year.

B.Turner--SFF