San Francisco Frontiers - French PM set to survive no confidence vote

Bayrou, a veteran centrist named by President Emmanuel Macron in December to end months of political crisis, on Monday used a controversial constitutional article to ram his cost-cutting budget through parliament without a vote.

But the use of this mechanism, article 49.3, allows the opposition to put forward a no-confidence motion and the bid to topple the government was duly proposed by the hard-left France Unbowed, backed by the Communists and the Greens, to be voted on Wednesday.

But while Bayrou is nowhere near having a majority in the National Assembly, the Socialists and far-right National Rally (RN) both said they would not back the no-confidence motion.

This gives Bayrou the numbers to survive and see through the budget. But it is unlikely to be the only challenge to his shaky administration in the coming months.

Bayrou, a keen historian who has written a book on his hero French king Henri IV assassinated in Paris in 1610, is well versed in how political ambition can suddenly come to an end.

"Passive support from both the Socialists and Marine Le Pen's far-right for Bayrou will end once a 2025 budget is fully enacted in the next few days," risk analysis firm Eurasia Group said, giving a 70-percent chance that the government will "fall in the next few months".

- 'Give France a budget' -

Jordan Bardella, RN leader, said his party did not intend to back the no-confidence vote adding while "it's a bad budget... we need a budget".

"We need to avoid uncertainty because many of our fellow citizens... are extremely worried about possible long-term instability," he said.

Socialist leader Olivier Faure said his party decided against voting to topple the government over the budget, as it would only have resulted in France having "a prime minister further to the right", or even "the resignation of a head of state".

"We chose to give France a budget," he told the France Inter radio station.

The move by the Socialists is a major boost for Bayrou that could mark the end of a broad left-wing alliance including the Socialists and LFI party that had endured since the election campaign.

But in a symbolic move, the party leadership decided Monday to propose a separate no-confidence motion after Bayrou referred to migrants "flooding" France, using terminology previously used by the far right.

However, this has little chance of passing as it is expected to be rejected by all right-wing parties.

Bayrou's predecessor Michel Barnier was toppled in a no-confidence vote late last year, leaving France in uncharted political waters.

- 'Need stability' -

The survival of Bayrou's government will be a relief for Macron who has faced calls to resign since the middle of last year but insisted he will stay on until the end of his term, due to end in 2027.

Many analysts and even allies are still baffled by the president's decision to call snap parliamentary elections last summer which gave the far right its biggest ever foothold in a divided parliament.

The cost-cutting and tax-hiking budget has proved controversial in some quarters, with France's richest man, the luxury goods mogul Bernard Arnault, denouncing a planned special corporate tax.

"We need stability," Macron said on Tuesday, while adding that "we should not go backwards".

Turbulent months remain ahead in French politics.

A verdict is due in far-right leader Marine Le Pen's fake EU parliament jobs trial -- on charges she denies -- on March 31 and she could be disqualified from the 2027 elections if convicted in a major political crossroads.

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M.Hill--SFF