San Francisco Frontiers - French PM set to force budget through parliament

Bayrou, a veteran centrist named by President Emmanuel Macron on December 13 to end months of political crisis following last summer's inconclusive legislative elections, is nowhere near having a parliamentary majority.

In a newspaper interview published Sunday, he announced he would ram through the budget legislation this week using article 49.3 of the constitution, which allows governments to pass laws without a vote in parliament.

"Now we must move towards adoption without delay. A country like ours cannot remain without a budget," Bayrou told the La Tribune Dimanche Sunday newspaper.

"The only way is to engage the government's responsibility. This will be done this Monday," he said in reference to article 49.3.

- Pressure on Macron -

But the use of this tactic, while convenient for a minority government, means the opposition has the right to put forwards a no-confidence motion to bring the premier and ministers down.

The hard-left France Unbowed (LFI), backed by the Communists and the Greens, has already said it will put forward such a motion for a vote, with the key question whether the Socialists (PS) and far-right National Rally (RN) will back it.

It was such an unholy alliance that toppled the government of Bayrou's predecessor Michel Barnier.

The new no-confidence vote should take place on Wednesday.

New legislative elections cannot take place until at least one year after the previous polls, so such a move would place Macron under intense pressure and plunge France into uncharted political waters.

Bayrou is Macron's sixth prime minister since taking office in 2017. The president has faced calls to step down but has repeatedly insisted he will serve out his term in full.

In its debate on Monday afternoon, the lower-house National Assembly will debate a text drawn up by a committee of 14 deputies and senators from the two parliamentary chambers.

Bayrou is also set to invoke article 49.3 to force through the social security budget later in the week.

"A 49.3 and Inshallah," read the headline in the left-leaning Liberation, saying it was quoting him using an Arabic expression meaning "God Willing".

- 'Concessions' to Socialists -

The prime minister managed to convince the Socialists not to back a no-confidence motion against him earlier this year in a major victory that heralded the end of the New Popular Front (NFP) broad left-wing alliance that has endured since the election campaign.

But with the Socialists -- who have performed woefully in elections since the presidency of Socialist Francois Hollande from 2012 to 2017 -- themselves split, things are far less certain this time.

Boris Vallaud, president of the Socialists' parliamentary group, told the Ouest France newspaper's Sunday edition that the party had not yet reached a position on the question.

If the PS has "wrested concessions", they "remain largely insufficient to make this budget a good budget", he said.

"But we also know that this country needs a budget and we hear the concerns, the fears of businesses, communities or associations," he added.

Vallaud's Socialists broke off talks with Bayrou's administration last week after he referred to migrants "flooding" France, borrowing from terminology previously used by the far right.

But the party's former prime minister, Lionel Jospin, argued this weekend that the Socialists should not back a no-confidence motion.

In an overture to the PS, Labour Minister Catherine Vautrin said the Bayrou government was prepared to widen the social security deficit.

"With new concessions, the government is hoping that the PS will not vote for the no-confidence motion," said Le Monde daily.

The RN has said it will make its position clear at the beginning of the week.

One RN deputy, Jean-Philippe Tanguy, told broadcaster France 3 that the budget being proposed was "worse" than not having one and said he personally wanted to back a motion of no confidence, he said.

But it will be for Le Pen, who leads the RN faction in the National Assembly, and party leader Jordan Bardella to decide, he added.

I.Wright--SFF