San Francisco Frontiers - Heavy fighting, telecoms disruption as Ethiopia conflict rages

The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) seized local airports and launched attacks into the neighbouring states of Afar and Amhara this week with the support of local armed groups, saying they were once again in a "full-blown war" with the federal government.

Tigrayans rushed to buy alternative sim cards as phone networks and the internet experienced near-total disruption.

Many are terrified of a repeat of the blockade imposed on the northern region during the civil war in 2020-2022 -- one of the deadliest conflicts of recent times with an estimated death toll of more than 600,000 -- when electricity, banking, and almost all aid were cut off.

A humanitarian source in Afar said there was "heavy fighting overnight", including drone strikes, around the town of Abala in the mountains on the border between Afar and Tigray, as "federal forces pushed the rebels from entering the town". They said hundreds of thousands of civilians could be displaced.

"Heavy fighting" also broke out in western Tigray at May Gaba and Tselimo, according to conflict monitor ACLED, which said an unspecified number of TPLF fighters had surrendered but were replaced by reinforcements.

In Amhara, the army says it has killed more than 700 TPLF fighters but has given no numbers for army or civilian casualties.

Clashes were reported in North Wollo Zone of Amhara on Thursday, including around the UNESCO World Heritage sites in Lalibela, home to Ethiopia's famed rock churches.

- No brakes -

The TPLF has forged an alliance with six other armed groups around the country in a bid to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. An eighth group, the Sidama Liberation Front based in southern Ethiopia, said it had joined the alliance on Friday, though it has not been very active in recent years.

The TPLF appears to be repeating its strategy from the last war of pushing south through Amhara towards the capital, Addis Ababa, analysts say.

The offensive in Afar is likely aimed at cutting off supplies from Djibouti, which provides almost all of Ethiopia's international trade cargo, including fuel.

The government has a significant military advantage, however, with a large arsenal of drones, an army of some 500,000 troops, and the support of external actors, notably the United Arab Emirates.

Clionadh Raleigh, head of ACLED, said in a report that while it was not yet all-out war, she could not see any "brakes in the system that prevent it from escalating further".

The conflict could also draw in neighbouring Eritrea on the side of the rebels, as it fears landlocked Ethiopia has been planning to invade and seize a direct access to the Red Sea.

"I don't expect this to go back to a quiet, low-intensity conflict. There are too many interests involved now," Raleigh said.

Washington only this month lifted sanctions on Ethiopia and Eritrea related to atrocities committed during the last civil war, saying the "national emergency... has expired". The US embassy sided with Ethiopia's government this week, saying it was "disappointed" with the TPLF offensive.

- Panic buying -

In Tigray, prices for basic goods have spiked as locals race to stock up on supplies.

"There is panic in the community," Samuel Gebreslassie, 37, who works in a spice shop in the Tigrayan capital, Mekelle, told AFP on Thursday.

"There is deep fear that banks, telecom networks, electricity and basic goods could be cut off again."

The TPLF ruled the whole of Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018 before being sidelined with Abiy's rise, eventually triggering a civil war marked by widespread war crimes and sexual violence.

The Pretoria Peace Agreement of 2022, brokered by African institutions and Washington, maintained an uneasy calm until last year but was never fully implemented, with around one million people still displaced.

Sporadic clashes then resumed, with the federal forces launching multiple drone strikes in Tigray in recent months and massing troops at the border.

Rights groups have accused the TPLF of a campaign of forced recruitment this year as it prepared for renewed conflict.

Y.Harris--SFF