San Francisco Frontiers - Trump faces major test as frigid Iowa kick-starts US election

Bundled up residents shuffled into more than 1,600 voting locations which opened at 7:00pm (0100 GMT), launching a blockbuster evening that presents the sternest test yet of Trump's promise to ride a year of enormous polling leads to a stunning White House return.

But the Hawkeye State is anticipating its coldest ever caucuses, with wind chills of -40 degrees (Fahrenheit and Celsius) forcing candidates to cancel events at the last minute and aides to fret over turnout.

Barring an unprecedented polling failure, Trump expects to be able to lock in victory with an earlier announcement than usual as he leads former UN ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis by almost 30 points.

The margin of the ex-president's victory is likely to be the only unknown quantity, and the tycoon's team has been lowering expectations, telling reporters a 12-point win would make for a good night.

"Brave the weather, go out and save America," Trump beseeched supporters at his only rally on Sunday.

Iowa accounts for less than two percent of the delegates awarded nationwide in the process to pick a party flagbearer, so a big night by no means guarantees success in the rest of the nominating season.

- Well-oiled -

But a strong showing is essential for candidates hoping for a springboard to New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina, and plenty of promising campaigns have crashed and burned in the frigid Upper Midwest.

The Trump machine looks much more well-oiled than it did when the former reality TV star lost in 2016, with boots on the ground across the state.

The candidate himself was off the trail in the final week, however, as he made voluntary appearances in some of the many court cases making his tilt at the White House a campaign like no other in history.

"He's running a campaign about putting himself and his issues first. That's what he cares about," DeSantis said in an interview with ABC.

"You can be the most worthless Republican in America but if you kiss the ring, he'll say you're wonderful."

Iowa is critical for DeSantis, who has bet all his chips on a strong ground operation, shifting significant resources to the state and spending months wooing voters in all 99 counties.

Analysts say anything short of a second-place finish would be disastrous for the hard-line conservative, yet the influential final Des Moines Register Iowa poll out Saturday showed Haley beating him by four points.

The surging Haley has tried to downplay expectations in Iowa and says she is looking simply for a strong performance ahead of the primary next Tuesday in her preferred state of New Hampshire.

- 'Target' -

She has repeatedly touted her electability over Trump, pointing to the "chaos" of his criminal cases and reminding Iowans that Republicans have lost the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections.

But the other camps have questioned the commitment of her supporters -- especially given the weather -- after the Iowa poll found that just nine percent feel "extremely enthusiastic" about her candidacy.

"I think we've always had a target on our back because we've been the one moving up, everybody else is going down and that's a great thing," Haley told Fox News.

Caucuses -- a quirk of the US election calendar -- are town hall-style meetings involving speeches and debate that a handful of states stage instead of the regular primary votes.

Armies of volunteers have fanned out through Iowa in recent weeks, knocking on doors or manning phone banks, while candidates dominated the air waves with talk show appearances and a relentless barrage of campaign ads.

Caucuses also are being held by Iowa's Democrats, along with voting by mail until March, with President Joe Biden facing two challengers but no serious threat.

L.Lopez--SFF