San Francisco Frontiers - Hakimi-inspired hosts Morocco the team to beat at 2025 AFCON

Expectations are high in the kingdom that the Atlas Lions can lift the most prized football trophy in the continent for only the second time on January 18 -- 50 years after last doing so.

But resilient title holders the Ivory Coast, Mohamed Salah-captained Egypt, Victor Osimhen-inspired Nigeria and Sadio Mane-led Senegal are some of the challengers capable of spoiling the Moroccan dream.

AFP Sport looks at the premier African sport event, from its humble debut in 1957 to a 2025 tournament set to draw huge global TV audiences from the first match on December 21.

Background

Only hosts Sudan, champions Egypt and Ethiopia took part in the 1957 AFCON after South Africa were disqualified for wanting to field either an all-white or all-black team. As time passed so did the number of qualifiers expand. It was six by 1963, eight five years later, 12 in 1992, then 16 four years on, and Egypt hosted the first 24-team event in 2019.

Giants

Egypt (seven titles), Cameroon (five), Ghana (four), Ivory Coast and Nigeria (three each) have dominated the AFCON, winning 22 of the 34 tournaments between them. Stars like goalkeeper Essam El Hadary, centre-back Wael Gomaa and midfielders Mohamed Aboutreika and Mohamed Barakat helped Egypt win a record three consecutive finals between 2006 and 2010.

Absentees

Ghana and Cape Verde, both 2026 World Cup qualifiers, will be the most notable absentees from the AFCON in Morocco after disastrous qualifying campaigns. Cape Verde managed only one victory in six matches and four-time champions Ghana fared even worse -- drawing three matches and losing the other three.

Favourites

Morocco will be the team to beat as they seek to end a string of disappointing campaigns. Favoured to succeed in the Ivory Coast last year, they made a last-16 exit, falling 2-0 to South Africa. Among the challengers, Nigeria and Cameroon are hurting after failing to qualify for the 2026 World Cup, Egypt have gone 15 years since last conquering Africa, and Senegal seek redemption after a poor 2024 campaign.

Dark horses

Of the 12 contenders who have not won the AFCON, Mali stand out as a team capable of going all the way after being unlucky quarter-final losers to Ivory Coast last year. "We respect everyone, but fear no one. Our ambition is to stay in this competition until the very end," says Tom Saintfiet, the Belgian coach of the Eagles.

Stars

Morocco coach Walid Regragui is optimistic that captain and defender Hakimi will recover from a sprained ankle, saying "we hope he will be available for our first match against the Comoros". Of the 10 stars short-listed for the 2025 African player of the year award won by Hakimi, eight are likely to be in Morocco. Cameroon midfielder Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa is injured and Serhou Guirassy misses out as Guinea did not qualify.

Build-up

A FIFA decision to change the release date of Africans with European clubs from December 8 to 15 upset many coaches as preparations had to be drastically altered. "FIFA only needs Africa during elections, but it does not value our competitions like AFCON or give them the recognition they deserve," said France-born Angola coach Patrice Beaumelle.

Profit

When the 2022 AFCON was won by Senegal in Cameroon, the Confederation of African Football (CAF) made a profit of less than $10 million. Fast forward to the 2025 edition in Morocco and the Cairo-based organisation is predicting a surplus of $110 million thanks to a huge increase in revenue from TV rights.

Support

A problem spanning many AFCONs is poor attendances at matches not involving the host nation. It creates the false impression that there is little interest in the tournament. There was a dramatic improvement at the 2024 edition in Ivory Coast and Moroccan officials hope to lure thousands of their countrymen to stadia for each of the 36 group and 16 knockout matches.

Security

Sharp objects were flung on to the pitch during a recent CAF Champions League match between locals FAR Rabat and Egyptian club Al Ahly, serving a timely warning to Moroccan security officers. Hostility toward visiting teams leading to a barrage of missiles, corrupt officials allowing attendance ceilings to be breached and lax crowd control remain problems in African football.

E.Walker--SFF