San Francisco Frontiers - Netanyahu scents election victory with far-right allies

With around 84 percent of the vote counted at 0755 GMT, according to the Central Elections Committee, Netanyahu could be set for a dramatic comeback.

"We are close to a big victory," he told supporters of his right-wing Likud party at a rally early Wednesday.

But his main rival, caretaker Prime Minister Yair Lapid, told his own supporters in Tel Aviv that "nothing is decided", and that his centrist Yesh Atid party "will wait patiently... for the final results".

The two rivals are vying for a majority coalition in Israel's 120-seat parliament, with initial results putting Netanyahu's bloc ahead after the country's fifth election in four years.

The former premier is buoyed by the rise of the extreme-right Religious Zionism bloc of Itamar Ben-Gvir, which made major gains and is expected to emerge as the third-largest party.

"Netanyahu wants a decisive victory; Lapid hopes for a tie, Ben-Gvir celebrates," read the front page of Israel's influential Yediot Aharonot newspaper, as rivals of Israel's longest-serving premier hold their breath.

But small parties whose seats could play a crucial role in coalition talks are teetering on the edge of the electoral threshold.

The margins appear wafer-thin and previous elections have shown that slight adjustments during the count can make or break a government.

- High turnout -

The early signs were positive for the 73-year-old Netanyahu, who is on trial on corruption charges that he denies.

The official count put Likud on track for a first-place finish, with 31 seats.

That number, combined with current tallies for the extreme-right Religious Zionism alliance and the two ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties backing Netanyahu, would give the bloc 65 seats.

An outright victory for the bloc would end the short reign of an alliance of eight parties under Lapid that managed to oust Netanyahu last year.

Lapid's Yesh Atid was on track for an expected second place, with 24 seats.

Yael Shomer, a senior lecturer in politics at Tel Aviv University, told AFP the count was "on pins and needles".

"It could be on a few thousands votes" to impact seats and change the final result, she said.

In a climate of grinding political deadlock, concerns about voter fatigue were widespread, but in the end 71.3 percent of voters turned out, the highest rate since 2015, according to official figures.

- Rise of extreme right -

Far-right leader Itamar Ben-Gvir would be key to helping Netanyahu return to power, with his Religious Zionism bloc on track for 14 seats, according to the latest results, double its current presence in parliament.

Ben-Gvir, who wants Israel to annex the entire West Bank, said his rise was fuelled by Israelis' security concerns.

"It's time we go back to being masters of our country," he said, reiterating his call for security services to use more force against Palestinians.

Arab-Israeli lawmaker Aida Touma-Suleiman said Netanyahu might be on track to form a government "with fascists by his side".

The vote was held against a backdrop of soaring violence across Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem and the occupied West Bank.

At least 29 Palestinians and three Israelis were killed in the territories in October, according to an AFP tally.

As the votes were being counted on Wednesday, Israeli troops killed a Palestinian the army said seriously wounded a soldier with a van in the occupied West Bank.

While many candidates cited security as a concern, none pledged to revive moribund peace talks with the Palestinians.

Palestinian prime minister Mohammad Shtayyeh said the projected election results highlighted "growing extremism and racism in Israeli society".

Lapid was the architect of the last coalition, which for the first time brought an Arab party into the fold.

The unlikely alliance was made possible after Mansour Abbas pulled his Raam party from a united slate with other Arab-led parties, paving the way for him to join the coalition.

But Raam's pioneering support for a coalition was not viewed positively across Arab society, which makes up around 20 percent of Israel's population.

On Wednesday morning, it remained unclear whether Raam would pass the threshold to hold onto its four seats.

Abbas charged that Arabs voters being "passive" could deliver a "gift" to Netanyahu, possibly ushering in a government with politicians known for virulent, anti-Arab rhetoric.

Another focus of the count was the Arab-led Balad party, which rejects any cooperation with Israeli governments.

The early count put Balad just short of the 3.25 percent of the vote needed to secure the minimum four seats in parliament.

If they cross the line when all the ballots are counted, that would reshuffle the tally, potentially dealing a blow to Netanyahu's chances.

M.Powell--SFF