San Francisco Frontiers - If victorious, Lula will have to battle 'hostile' Congress

For far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, however, it is a boon -- whether he wins or loses.

Bolsonaro, 67, exceeded polling predictions by coming a closer-than-expected second to Lula, 76, in a first election round on October 2.

The two men will face off in a deeply polarized second round on October 30.

Though still trailing frontrunner Lula, Bolsonaro emerged strong from the first round in more ways than one: his Liberal Party (PL) did well in legislative elections held on the same day, and will be the biggest single party in Congress when its new term starts in February.

In the lower house, or Chamber of Deputies, the PL will have the largest representation of any party since 1998, with 99 out of the 513 seats -- a 23 seat bump.

With other allied parties, a right-wing Bolsonaro bloc would have almost 190 lawmakers, or more than a third, in the deeply fragmented house where more than 20 parties are represented from all sides of the political spectrum.

In the 81-seat Senate, the PL boosted its presence by six seats to 13, and all of Brazil's right-wing parties together now control 53 percent of the higher chamber.

"It is a conservative, liberal, center-right Congress," crowed Chamber of Deputies president, Arthur Lira, who has thrown his support behind Bolsonaro for the second round.

- 'Quite hostile' -

What does this mean in case of a Lula victory?

"Congress and the Senate will be quite hostile to Lula because the right grew -- it is not just the right, it is the far right, the more radical right that grew," Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) analyst Oliver Stuenkel told AFP.

The new Congress, he said, "will try to complicate Lula's life," likely blocking his reform agenda that includes increasing taxes on the rich and new labor laws more favorable to workers.

And in a further distraction, impeachment attempts are likely to start already "on day one," said Stuenkel.

Lula served two terms from 2003 to 2010, leaving as the most popular president in Brazilian history with approval ratings nearing 90 percent.

But this time, getting allies to pass his program will be "more difficult," said Sergio Praca, a political scientist also at FGV.

The only hope for Lula would be, as he did last time, to ally leftist parties in Congress -- about 120 lawmakers in all -- with the center, which holds about 240.

The "Centrao," which groups a handful of conservative but pragmatic parties, has dominated Brazilian politics for decades, and any president hoping to get things done has had to forge alliances with it.

But its cooperation is not free: these centrist parties exchange their support for influential political posts or handouts for their electoral fiefdoms.

And they can withdraw it at the drop of a hat, as Lula's successor Dilma Rousseff learned when she was impeached in 2016 after being abandoned by her centrist allies.

- Pressure on the judiciary -

In its current form, the Congress is primed for pushing through a conservative agenda if Bolsonaro is reelected to a second term.

Bolsonaro has successfully sold himself as the representative of Brazil's "Bibles, bullets and beef" electoral base -- Evangelical Christians, security hardliners and the powerful agribusiness sector.

With a second term, he would also be in a position to appoint two judges to Brazil's Supreme Court in 2023, shifting the balance of power in an institution that could be the final arbiter in several criminal pursuits against him.

Bolsonaro could also use his increased influence on the Senate to push for the removal of unfriendly judges.

"The major risk to democracy in a second Bolsonaro term would be his increased capacity to put pressure on the judiciary," said Stuenkel.

But even if he loses the October 30 runoff, Bolsonaro would likely benefit from the new Congress.

With the Congress as it stands, "he has every chance of being protected," from criminal prosecution, said Carolina Botelho, a researcher in political communication at the Rio de Janeiro State University.

Z.Phillips--SFF