San Francisco Frontiers - Will Nobel Peace Prize pick make waves at the White House?

The laureate will be revealed at 11:00 am (0900 GMT) at the Nobel Institute in Oslo.

In a world ravaged by conflicts and crises, 287 individuals and organisations have been nominated for the ultimate diplomatic and humanitarian accolade this year.

Their identities are kept secret for 50 years, leaving Nobel watchers guessing about who will get the nod.

The only thing experts agree on is that the winner will not be Trump, despite his -- unsubstantiated -- claims of having ended up to eight wars, and his assertion that he is the most deserving candidate.

"They have a reputation for maybe not giving it to people like me... and I think it would be a great discredit to them," Trump said on Wednesday.

"And I'm not saying that out of scorn."

In Oslo, the US president is generally considered disqualified due to his war against Iran, his territorial expansion ambitions as in Greenland, his hard line on migrants, and his attacks on multilateralism and the media.

Regardless of who the Norwegian Nobel Committee chooses, its pick may be interpreted as direct or indirect criticism of the Republican billionaire.

The head of the Peace Research Institute in Oslo (PRIO), Haakon Gjerlow, said the committee must ask itself whether the Nobel risks causing the recipient more "harm rather than good", given the reactions that could emerge from the White House.

Last year, the prize went to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, a choice generally considered palatable to Trump.

Machado even gave him her Nobel gold medal, judging he deserved it after the capture of President Nicolas Maduro -- though she failed to obtain his political backing in exchange.

The reasons given by the Nobel Committee for choosing Peace Prize winners have changed substantially since 1901, shifting from promoting peace to defending human rights in a trend that gained momentum during the Cold War, according to an AFP analysis.

The Nobel committee meanwhile says it is not swayed by external pressures.

"Of course we have to discuss it, but it's not like that influences the discussions in the room and decisions that come out," the secretary of the committee, Kristian Berg Harpviken, told AFP.

- Consensus, or not? -

Choosing a laureate who enjoys broad consensus, such as an individual or organisation working to protect children or humanitarian efforts, would be less likely to stoke Trump's ire, experts say.

That could include the Save the Children charity and Ukraine's Mykola Kuleba, who campaigns for the return of kids illegally taken to Russia -- a cause close to the heart of Trump's wife Melania.

Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (ERR), a vast network of volunteers risking their lives to help people facing the double threat of war and hunger, could also be a laureate.

The head of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Karim Haggag, said the ERR was his favourite for the prize.

"The conflict in Sudan, unfortunately, has been forgotten. And this is a conflict that has really reflected tremendous humanitarian suffering," he told AFP.

But the committee may also choose a laureate that could rub Trump the wrong way.

That could include the UN special rapporteur for the occupied Palestinian territories Francesca Albanese, Pope Leo XIV, press freedoms with an award to the Committee to Protect Journalists, or international justice bodies such as the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

After the Nobel Peace Prize, this year's award season winds up on Monday with the economics prize.

Earlier this week, the prizes for medicine, physics, chemistry and literature were announced in Stockholm, with the latter going to Canadian poet Anne Carson on Thursday for her modern twists on Greek mythology and antiquity.

Each Nobel prize comes with a diploma, a gold medal and a cheque for $1.2 million, to be presented on December 10.

J.Martinez--SFF