San Francisco Frontiers - Scandal-weary Brazilians to vote as Lula faces Bolsonaro son

The election will determine if Latin America's biggest economy joins a rightward shift in the region that has been cheered on by US President Donald Trump.

In a deeply polarized nation, Brazilians are feeling a weary sense of deja vu in an election offering a familiar political script: Lula, 80, seeking a fourth term, is facing off against the son of far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Many of the country's 160 million registered voters have yet to make up their minds after a campaign dominated by scandals that have shaken both sides.

"I'm still undecided. Because corruption is so blatant. It's difficult," said Joel da Silva, 42, a doorman in Rio de Janeiro who has voted for both Lula and Jair Bolsonaro in past elections.

Opinion polls show Lula slightly ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro in the first round vote.

The pair are in a dead heat in an expected runoff on October 25.

- The Trump factor -

Lula, a global leftist icon, made a dramatic return to office in 2023, following a stint in jail on corruption convictions that were later annulled on a jurisdictional technicality.

At home, he is loved and hated in equal measure, having never fully shrugged off the accusations.

Lula criss-crossed the country energetically in what is expected to be his final election race, boasting about his fitness routine.

His campaign leaned heavily on national sovereignty in the face of what he denounced as Trump's interventionism.

Trump has openly backed right-wing candidates who won elections in Chile, Colombia, and Peru in recent months.

"Brazil does not belong in anyone's backyard," Lula said last week at the UN General Assembly.

Trump has not openly endorsed the son of his ally Jair Bolsonaro, although he hosted the 45-year-old senator at the White House earlier this year.

In his third term, Lula has been credited with expanding social programs, overhauling the tax system, and reducing deforestation in the Amazon.

Unemployment is at a record low and inflation is under control, but the economy is slowing, and Brazilians are most anxious about crime and violence.

With Flavio Bolsonaro nipping at his heels in the polls, Lula made several last-ditch bids to his working-class electorate: he upped social welfare benefits and banned online betting, which has driven millions into debt.

"Without wishing to idolize him, he is one of the greatest presidents this country has ever had," says Israel Gomes, 52, a hotel manager in Brasilia.

- 'Very skeptical' -

Flavio Bolsonaro was thrust into the electoral race after his father was jailed for attempting a coup against Lula when he lost a 2022 election bid.

He has styled himself as a "more moderate" version of his firebrand father, while relying heavily on his enduring political appeal.

He has promised a hard line on crime, pledging to build maximum-security mega-prisons.

Elias Camisero, a 74-year-old tailor, hopes Flavio will "wipe out" the criminal groups that control working-class neighborhoods in various Brazilian cities.

"It has to end. Today, in Brazil, organized crime is in charge," he told AFP in Sao Paulo.

Many have given up hope that politics can solve their most pressing problems, such as security.

"I don't really see much changing ... if either Flavio or Lula wins. I'm very skeptical about that," said Eduardo Metzker, 29, a software developer in Rio de Janeiro who has been mugged three times.

The campaign was dominated by a cascade of revelations linked to jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro, who is accused of orchestrating one of Brazil's largest financial fraud cases, and had questionable ties with many in high places.

Flavio Bolsonaro is under investigation for suspected corruption and money laundering over the financing of a biopic about his father, bankrolled by Vorcaro.

Ties were revealed between Vorcaro and a powerful Supreme Court justice, tarnishing the image of the country's institutions, which analysts said hurt Lula's campaign.

The campaign was "marked by scandals rather than policy proposals," Joscimar Silva of the University of Brasilia's Institute of Political Science told AFP.

"There is voter fatigue. People think everyone is corrupt."

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