San Francisco Frontiers - The German state premier hoping to halt far-right surge

Manuela Schwesig of the centre-left SPD -- a cancer survivor with high personal approval ratings and a large social media following -- is fighting a battle that is being closely watched, especially in the office of Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

The race in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania pits her against Leif-Erik Holm, a former radio host who threw in his lot with the pro-Donald Trump and Moscow-friendly Alternative for Germany (AfD).

Two weeks after the AfD scored a stunning victory in Saxony-Anhalt state, the contest in another former communist East German state is seen as a test between an anti-establishment party on a roll and the beleaguered political centre.

Holm, 56, is not known for the radical edge or charisma of some other AfD figures but could still ride the far-right party's momentum.

"The race here is very clear," Schwesig, 52, who hopes to keep governing with a leftist multi-party coalition, told AFP during a campaign stop in the Baltic Sea port of Rostock.

"Either the AfD becomes the strongest force or the SPD remains the strongest force."

Merz's centre-right CDU is almost a bystander in the two-corner bout -- but still has everything to lose.

While the AfD was polling at 37 percent against the SPD's 35 percent in the latest Bild daily INSA survey, Merz's CDU, at just seven percent, may drop dangerously close to the five-per cent hurdle needed to stay in the state parliament.

A CDU crash below that line would be a historic first and heap pressure on Merz as leader.

- 'Fight for democracy' -

As such, all eyes have been on Schwesig, a former national family minister whose motto has been the "Frau gegen Blau" -- the woman against blue, the AfD's signature colour.

In Berlin, the SPD is the junior coalition partner to the CDU -- a pact of Germany's two traditional big-tent parties whom the AfD blames for almost everything it sees as wrong with Europe's biggest economy.

Once trailing badly in the polls, the SPD has narrowed the gap in recent weeks, raising its hopes of scoring a last-minute victory as it hopes to build another coalition government in the sparsely populated state.

"We are fighting for democracy," said one of Schwesig's supporters, Daniel Prokof, 40. "The most important thing is simply that the AfD does not come to power here."

In order to defend the political centre, Schwesig has at times attacked it.

Seeking to insulate herself from voter anger at Berlin, she has publicly challenged the national government on its plans to tighten pension rules and over soaring fuel prices.

"I know that many people are disappointed with the national SPD," Schwesig told AFP. "But if they say they want me to continue my work, then I ask them to vote for the SPD here in the state."

- 'Send Merz packing' -

The AfD rallied around Holm last weekend in the small lakeside town of Buetzow.

Holm and other AfD politicians had to compete with loud punk rock music from anti-AfD protesters, who faced off across the town square with young men with close-cropped hair and black combat boots.

Some in the pro-AfD crowd expressed eager support for the party's promise of mass "remigration".

"The illegal immigrants have to leave Germany," said Jolin Ressel, 21. "They're receiving funds that rightfully belong to us."

Holm told AFP that "people can see that with their vote they can actually change something" and voiced hope that "we can ensure that Merz's government is sent packing".

Holm has also sought to chain Schwesig to Merz and his sputtering government.

"She is an SPD politician," he said. "She cannot simply cast herself as the opposition now -- she contributed to all of this."

Gudrun Schumann, 72, a retired physician who wandered past the rally, said she understood the AfD appeals to voters angry over mounting problems with healthcare, education and the cost of living.

"Ms Schwesig is doing a good job, but she's a member of the SPD and unfortunately the SPD hasn't done anything for the people in recent years," said Schumann.

"But I don't think the AfD will govern us any better. I simply don't believe that. And the kind of racist and anti-minority rhetoric they've been spouting certainly doesn't help us live together in harmony."

J.Martinez--SFF