San Francisco Frontiers - Meloni government becomes Italy's longest-lasting

In a country once a byword for political instability, Italy's first woman leader will have been in charge of the same administration for 1,413 days, one more than the late Silvio Berlusconi managed during one of his four stints in office.

"It is certainly a point of pride," Marco Osnato, a prominent lawmaker with Meloni's far-right Brothers of Italy (FdI) party, told AFP of the milestone.

The record is likely to boost the prime minister's image as Italy, which has had almost 70 governments over the past 80 years, gears up for a national vote in 2027, analysts say.

With FdI constantly topping opinion polls, it might seem Meloni is on track for a repeat of her 2022 win.

But recent events have complicated the path to re-election, said Lorenzo Pregliasco, of the YouTrend polling institute.

This year Meloni was undermined by a justice reform referendum defeat that showed voters there "may be an alternative majority" to the coalition currently in power, Pregliasco said.

- Success? -

The drubbing also raised questions about the government's record.

With plans to strengthen the powers of the prime minister and increase regional autonomy, the reform was one of three flagship coalition pledges that the government has so far failed to deliver.

And critics say results have fallen well short of expectations in other areas too. The government, which enjoys an ample parliamentary majority, has failed to tackle the structural issues that many believe hold Italy back, they say.

"This stability was not capitalised upon," said Chiara Braga, the leader of the centre-left opposition Democratic Party's parliamentary group.

"It did not lead to any significant improvement in people's living standards or business competitiveness".

Italy's economy is forecast to grow a lacklustre 0.6 percent in 2026, while real wages have been virtually stagnant since the early 1990s.

Unemployment has fallen from above 7 percent to around 5 percent over the past four years, but the number of economically inactive people -- those who could work but are not looking for a job -- remains high.

"This government has primarily sought to survive" by "doing as little as possible", said Tito Boeri, an economist at Milan's Bocconi University.

Supporters counter that the administration has cut taxes and increased tax revenues, brought fiscal discipline to the highly indebted nation, and won Italy a more prominent role on the global stage at a fraught geopolitical time.

"When it comes to foreign policy, Italy has never been so central, particularly in Europe," Osnato said, noting that from a hardening of migration rules to energy policy Rome was now considered a driving force in Brussels.

- 'Nothing has changed' -

Politically, Meloni's coalition risks bleeding voters to Roberto Vannacci, a former general who regularly bashes migrants and LGBTQ+ people.

His newly-created Futuro Nazionale party polls at around 7 percent and could emerge as a kingmaker next year.

But support for the ruling alliance, which includes the far-right League of Matteo Salvini and conservative Forza Italia, is buoyed by perennial infighting within the left-leaning opposition and increasing abstentionism, analysts say.

Voter turnout in 2022 was about 64 percent, a record low, and fell below 50 percent for European elections in 2024.

"A sizable share of voters is really disappointed and angry," said Giovanni Orsina, a political scientist at Rome's Luiss University.

Italy's chronic issues have led many to believe that "no one can solve their problems," he added.

In August, Meloni was loudly booed at a sporting event in Taranto, a southern city home to a giant steel plant plagued by economic and environmental challenges that the government is struggling to keep afloat.

Surveys show that the cost of living, a deteriorating public health system, security and immigration are among Italians' top concerns.

Such trends were in plain sight in Tor Bella Monaca, a working-class eastern suburb of Rome dotted by rundown apartment blocks, cash-for-gold shops and discount stores.

Governed by Meloni's party, the district regularly ranks among those with the lowest voter turnout.

"Nothing has changed in Italy over the 45 years I've been on this planet and nothing will," said Maurizio, a sandal-wearing IT worker who preferred to give only his first name.

He is tempted by Vannacci but will not vote next year, he said, lamenting the lack of a long-term vision for the country.

Others were more upbeat.

"People expect to see improvement overnight," said Annamaria, 67, a local pensioner and supporter of the prime minister who also declined to give her last name.

"It takes time, but things are getting better," she added, saying she believed that crime -- and migrants -- had become less visible of late.

Y.Harris--SFF