San Francisco Frontiers - Palace intrigue in Uganda as succession battle heats up

The east African country has been ruled by President Yoweri Museveni for more than four decades, but as the 81-year-old has taken more of a backseat in recent months, speculation has mounted over who will succeed him.

Museveni's son, army chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba, has made no secret of his desire for the top job, announcing -- then retracting -- his intention to run multiple times over the years.

The heir-apparent has been flexing his muscles of late, ordering crackdowns on rivals, opposition figures and the media -- even boasting of kidnapping and torturing opponents.

The 52-year-old is a prolific and provocative user of X, veering between threats of violence and plans to marry US popstar Beyonce. This week, he vowed he would run for the presidency at the next election in 2031, expecting to "get 90 percent".

But he faces competition from within the powerful first family, with some backing his more sedate brother-in-law, Odrek Rwabwogo, 56, who has been quietly gathering support for years within the bureaucracy and presents himself as a reformer.

Rwabwogo is married to the army chief's sister, Patience.

Kainerugaba is not taking the challenge lightly, calling his brother-in-law's economic think tank "an illegal organisation" and threatening to "start arresting its members immediately", including Rwabwogo himself if he questioned the authority of any security officers.

This week, he boasted that he had kidnapped Rwabwogo's personal aide in now deleted posts on X.

- 'Political schemers' -

As Kainerugaba exercised increasing power this year -- including temporarily shutting down the biggest media group -- Rwabwogo was the only political figure to express dissent, even if he refrained from mentioning the army chief by name.

"We must keep the country communicating freely. We must allow people to speak without fear... We must raise leaders who can think, read, listen, act and protect the greater good," Rwabwogo said in a video message.

Rwabwogo's think tank, the Presidential Advisory Committee on Exports and Industrial Development (PACEID), says political reform is vital to boosting growth in Uganda, where half the population lives on less than $3 a day despite considerable mineral wealth.

"It will require rule of law, restraint, honest communication, disciplined leadership, and institutions that can still listen," Rwabwogo said.

"Reform is not betrayal. Reform is how institutions remain alive," he added.

His comments drew sharp criticism from Kainerugaba's allies.

"We shall continue to reject and resist political schemers that want to catapult themselves to the top political echelons using shortcuts," said David Kabanda, chairman of Kainerugaba's Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU).

Others question whether Rwabwogo would be a real reformer.

"(He) is trying to market himself as a more democratic alternative compared to his brother-in-law. It does not necessarily mean that he is what he claims to be," said Gerald Waluya, a communications lecturer at Kampala's Makerere University.

- 'Military state' -

The palace intrigue has become the focus of Ugandan politics because all other opponents have either been jailed or forced to flee the country.

"The battle for succession has largely remained an in-house rather than a national matter following the weakening of political institutions and the crushing of dissenting voices," said Waluya.

Museveni has kept his own views on the succession quiet, but as a former guerrilla army leader, many assume he favours his son.

UNAIDS chief Winnie Byanyima, whose husband is the longtime opposition leader Kizza Besigye, now on trial for treason, told AFP earlier this year that Uganda had become "a military state".

"President Museveni is a military man, his first preference would be on the camp which is leaning towards military control of power," political analyst Ronald Leonard Egesa told AFP.

L.Ramos--SFF